California Campaigns

Abel Maldonado was right

2006-08-21T17:29:00.000-07:00

Abel Maldonado was quoted in the Los Angeles Times as saying

"Our governor cares about one thing only, and that's Arnold Schwarzenegger,"

Sunday's SacBee details the Governor betraying the Victory '06 "team". Let's hear it for unity.

But with a full bank of cameras and reporters on hand Saturday, none of the
down-ticket candidates stood with the governor at Saturday's luncheon, and
banners promoting the other candidates had been removed from the vast convention room before the governor's speech.

CRP update

2006-08-15T22:07:00.000-07:00

The effort to force the GOP to endorse all of the Governors spending spree continues.

The CRP Chair is making appointments to the executive committee to insure passage of the bonds that normally the GOP would oppose.

Sundheim undermines CRP Convention to help Arnold

2006-08-09T12:40:00.000-07:00

Why hasn't the CRP been promoting the upcoming August Convention like they have past meetings?

Simple Duf and company don't want a quroum. There is even an effort to collect proxies and NOT turn them over to the party in order to prevent a quorom.

Rather then the delegates voting on the bond , Duf and the Governor's political people have decided to use the Duf hand picked Executive CRP Committee to get what they want.

Team to Pass Bonds Announced

2006-08-09T11:27:00.000-07:00

Quite an impressive team was announced to pass the "1's" - ie, the bonds.

Take a look, from Gale Kaufman helping out with framing education issues, to Bush's pollster - wow. I guess they did see the Field Poll showing them in trouble...

This from today's Capitol Morning Report

Polka Consulting reports it has been retained to lead the “bipartisan campaign team” assembled to run the united Rebuild CA campaign, Yes on Props. 1A (close 42 loophole), 1B (transportation bond), 1C (housing bond), 1D (education bond) and 1E (levees bond). According to Polka Consulting: Sandi Polka will “set overall and day-today strategy;” Larry McCarthy, president of McCarthy Marcus Hennings Ltd., will produce the campaign’s paid media; John Whitehurst and Mark Mosher, of Barnes Mosher Whitehurst Lauter and Partners, will focus on statewide Democratic and organizational outreach; Tom Ross, managing partner of Meridian Pacific, will oversee outreach to Republican and business organizations statewide; public opinion polling and research will be conducted jointly by Moore Methods and Jan van Lohuizen, president of Voter Consumer Research Inc.; Deborah Howard of D. Howard and Assocs. will assist in outreach, press and coordinate the campaign’s speaker’s bureau; and Paul Hefner of Polka Consulting will oversee campaign press and serve as spokesperson. Also, the campaign says it will consult with specialists on specific elements of the infrastructure plan, including: Gale Kaufman of Kaufman Campaign Consultants (schools), Steve Glazer of Glazer & Assocs. (housing), and Mark Watts and D.J. Smith of Smith Watts & Company (transportation/infrastructure). Contact: Paul Hefner 916 443 5900.

63%

2006-08-04T13:16:00.000-07:00

The biggest number that strikes me, after reflecting for a few days, about the Field Poll was the Angelides support among Democrats stat: 63%.

Field found just 63% of Democrats are voting for Phil.

If that sticks, Arnold wins.

But if, and when, that starts going up, obviously watch for Phil's overall numbers to start closing in on the Governor.

Is Angelides Hitting His Stride?

2006-08-04T11:18:00.000-07:00

During the Primary, having a clear message wasn’t Phil Angelides’ problem. It could practically have fit on a bumper sticker. “I’m the real liberal. Steve Westly is just Arnold’s Mini Me,” basically was the daily mantra from his campaign.

But since June, he’s essentially been without one. Without a message to define his campaign. From “he’s an actor,” to “he’s George Bush,” Phil has yet to catch fire.

But today it seems he’s hitting on something that many top Republican strategists have told me privately is their fear that one day Phil would find as a message: “Arnold is a flip-flopper.”

It has been touched on by many people in many ways, but really Arnold has been on every side of every issue.

Education? Take away funding. Give it back. And more.

Prop 187? Is his message any more clear than Kerry’s “I voted for it before I voted against it” ???

How about the Minutemen? Prescription drugs? National Guard troop deployment?

How about just on issues that will appear on this November’s ballot? Last year, Arnold endorsed the Parental Notification initiative. This year, they even took out some of the poison pill portions, and he’s nowhere to be seen on it.

Paddling to the left, paddling to the right is a centrist political strategy, to be sure. But when you do the paddling on the same issue, sticking your oar in different sides of the water from day-to-day, it isn’t strategic, it’s erratic.

Angelides may be on to something if he sticks with this theme and builds it into an over-arching strategy.

Schwarzenegger Dropping McClintock?

2006-08-01T18:10:00.000-07:00

Wiser people than myself predicted long ago that once Schwarzenegger took the lead in the polls he would drop McClintock like a Frenchman drops his rifle at the first sign of a Panzer. And so now it seems to have come to pass.

Last week Schwarzenegger was in McClintock's district for a fundraiser at the home of uber-donor Ed Atsinger. 30 people at $30,000 a head I'm told. Stragely, McClintock wasn't even told about the event, nevermind invited. If the Governor was really running on a "ticket" as he claimed in the days of his abysmal poll numbers, he would have invited McClintock along to meet some of those high-dollar people.

Potential GOP Revolt Against Arnold's Bond Measures?

2006-07-28T12:56:00.000-07:00

Prop 1B – $19.9 billion traffic bond

All voters – 54 Yes – 27 No – 19 Undecided
Among GOP - 39 Yes – 38 NO – 20 Undecided

Prop 1C - $2.8 billion housing bond

All voters - 33 Yes- 42 No- 25 Undecided
Among GOP - 17 Yes-- 56 No-- 27 Undecided

Prop 1D - $10.4 billion school facilities

All voters – 48 Yes-- 37 No-- 15 Undecided
GOP – 31 Yes-- 50 No-- 19 Undecided

Prop 1E - $4.1 billion flood protection/emergency preparedness

All voters – 47 Yes-- 33 No-- 20 Undecided
GOP – 35 Yes-- 42 No-- 23 Undecided

Told Ya!

2006-07-28T09:20:00.000-07:00

"'So what I've said to Phil, and he's good with that, is that after this is over, of course I'm going to be with the Democrat,' Villaraigosa said Thursday."

Odd. Sounds a lot like what this blog said would happen.

FIELD'S FIELD

2006-07-25T07:28:00.001-07:00

Like most of you, I started my day by downloading the pdf of the Field Poll and giving it a look over breakfast.

My basic question is: do any of its findings merit repeating?

How does a turnout model where the Republican gets 33% in LA County and 34% in the Bay Area, adding up to an 8-point Republican lead make any sense?

My answer: it doesn’t.

I’d have to guess that this is heavily over-sampled in the remaining parts of Southern California (ie, OC, Inland Empire) and the Central Valley.

Sure, ask 992 registered voters at the Harvest Crusade who they’re supporting, and ya, I’d imagine Arnold does pretty well. Ask 992 registered voters at a Save the Whales rally, and well, probably not so well.

A wise man once told me that a poll is only as good as its sample.

This Field Poll doesn’t seem to be very good.

Remember that when the next one trickles out and shows guys like McClintock and Strickland (still) up. Granted, I think they might actually be, but this won’t be valid validation. At least not in my book.

Republicans Agree: Daucher Can't Win?

2006-07-17T23:49:00.000-07:00

So what’s it mean when you’re trying to campaign for a tough seat, yet even those in your own Party are angling against you?

The last time I ventured down behind the Orange Curtain, I was asked by several people who I thought would win for Supervisor.

“Bates probably,” I replied, “though Cassie is spending a fortune to prove me wrong.”

Getting an unsatisfied look in return, I realized each meant the OTHER Supervisor race, the one people are campaigning, but not really campaigning for.

It must infuriate Lynn Daucher, but the sharks are already circling, even from within her own Party, to replace… her opponent on the OC Board of Supes.

Councilmembers Janet Nguyen and Carlos Bustamante are both looking to be THE GOP candidate to take back this seat currently held by Daucher opponent Lou Correa. The trouble is, for the seat to be open, Daucher must lose.

Oops. So goes the argument that people believe Daucher can win.

Stop Fooling Ourselves: Antonio's a Dem

2006-07-15T10:47:00.000-07:00

Are California Republicans just trying to fool themselves?

You might think that, but I couldn’t possibly comment. Or could I?

Many normally astute observers of California politics on the right side of the aisle have been falling all over themselves lately trying to make sense of Arnold’s appointment of Mayor Villiaraigosa’s sister to the bench, Arnold’s support for the Mayor’s school take over plan, and the Mayor’s to-date lack of an endorsement for Phil Angelides.

These otherwise wise pundits have concluded that because the Mayor has yet to endorse, that he won’t. The reasoning goes that Antonio wants his school plan passed and signed, and isn’t exactly secret about his wishes for Phil to lose, giving Antonio no incumbent in his way when he runs for Governor in 2010. Fair enough.

But that still strikes me as wishful thinking, at best.

Antonio is as savvy as they come. He knows he would be making his Primary bid for the Gov’s office immeasurably more difficult by sitting out this race, especially as the big city Mayor from SoCal may be taking on a NorCal counterpart.

So, what then to make of the Mayor’s current refusal to endorse?

Well, how about using it as a stick to get his reform plan passed through a skeptical state legislature?

It took a fairly massive overhaul of the plan itself, and several days of personal lobbying for the former Speaker of the joint to even get the tepid support he currently has. And that’s with the top two folks on the Assembly side, as well as the Senator Majority Leader already in the bag.

He has his carrots, what he needs are sticks. And what better one than for the most popular Latino in this largely Latino state to sit on his hands while Phil flounders?

Antonio will come around to support Phil. It takes, what, two days top to script and shoot a couple of spots? Absentees are still many months out, even further out than September’s flurry of bill signings. Antonio will be there for his guy, no question.

So, Republicans, let’s not fool ourselves into thinking such things, ok?

26%

2006-07-07T14:16:00.000-07:00

According to yesterday's San Jose State poll, 26% of conservatives (18% of all Republicans) disapprove of the Governor.

GARRY SOUTH SPEAKS

2006-07-07T12:13:00.000-07:00

This, from the ever-insightful New West News Blog:

I am perplexed by the Angelides general-election campaign. All through the primary until this very day, he has yet to air an ad that could be considered a proper introductory or bio spot, telling voters something about his background, his personal story, and why he is qualified to be governor. All we know after tens of millions spent on advertising is that a) he has three daughters, b) he has a lot of endorsements from politicians and interest groups, and c) Westly and Schwarzenegger are schmucks (twins?!). It’s a basic rule of thumb that you have to tell voters something of your candidate’s life story and his qualifications for the job he is seeking before they care much what his positions on the issues are — particularly with a candidate who is not well known. Angelides has so far not put a single spot on the air that mentioned anything about his family background (grandson of immigrants who didn’t speak English, father worked hard to send him to Harvard, etc.). Nor, for that matter, has he aired a single ad that told people what he has done during eight years as treasurer, and why that qualifies him to be governor (even the ill-fated Kathleen Brown in ‘94 discussed her record as treasurer in her spots). It’s like the Man Who Fell from the Sky — yesterday. If the Angelides campaign thinks their hate of Shwarzenegger and Bush is sufficient to beat an incumbent (and a movie-star incumbent governor at that) they should check back with the Dean and Kerry campaigns. The Republicans hated Davis in ‘02, too, and couldn’t fathom how anybody could possibly vote for him. As I recall, he was re-elected anyway with a 39% job-approval rating. Free advice, Phil –take it or leave it.

What's Been Going On

2006-07-06T18:33:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the delay. Even as much of a junkie as I has to take a break from time to time.

So let’s get caught up.

GOVERNOR: Der Arnold and Phil have been trying to “out backwards” each other, running ads with vastly different sized buys claiming each are trying to take the state back to the stone age.

Arnold’s ads seem to be working, though we’re still very early and Phil (and his union buddies) have yet to engage.

We’ll see what happens.

GOVERNOR 2: Arnold seems wholly uninterested in being a Republican. With his primary campaign issues being the environment and massive spending increases, voters could easily confuse Arnold with just about any of the Democrats in Sacramento.

Why the Republicans are still going along? Who knows…

CONTROLLER: The CRP sent out a release announcing a poll by the ever-respected Public Opinion Strategies showing Tony being up on Chiang by 8 among likely voters.

My question is: HOW?

I don’t buy that Tony has enough name id to warrant that, after all, he struggled to beat Maldonado.

And I don’t buy that voters are just that naturally inclined to put a Republican in this seat, as McClintock fell short 4 years ago to capture it.

First, we have to ask how the poll was conducted – despite someone like Kinney having conducted it. Did they just use Ballot Designations? Did they include Party ID?

But as this campaign plays out, no doubt Chiang will have more money to fund the race, but as he’s one of the naïve politicians who refuses to go negative, Strickland may have a chance to tell voters of the sure-to-exist hundreds of examples of Chiang siding against taxpayers as a member of the BOE. Question is, can Tony find the money to get that message out…

JESSICA’S LAW: CRP also did polling showing it WAY up. Despite asking both POS and Mike Vallante at the CRP for any toplines or anything, nothing has come our way to report on the particulars of the survey.

CRP POLLING: So they released results for Controller and JLaw. Does that mean the others are struggling? Why release JUST THOSE TWO results???

Is McClintock down? How bad do they have Pooch? What about Eminent Domain? Parental Notification?

AG: Chuck’s ad is fantastic and no doubt just the start of things to come. With $3 million, and no shortage of things to hit Moonbeam on, its good to see Khachigian and Co reminding voters just who Jerry is, before Jerry can paint Pooch as a troglodyte.

I just wonder what more they have in store.

Governor Throws another Nominee under the bus!

2006-06-27T14:53:00.000-07:00

First the Governor ran over an last principles the GOP stood for. We are now the party of deficits, bonds, abortion, illegal alien health care, homosexuality etc...

Of course he couldn't find a Republicanto be Chief of Staff. He campaigns with Jerry Brown for Bonds. Then after the Primary he wonders if he will endorse Democrats and specifically refuses to endorse the party's nominee for U.S. Senate Dick Mountjoy.

Today the Governor was to hold a press conference to advocate victim's rights with top GOP Assembly target Democrat Nicole Parra. Great job Governor. Don't forget to help Lou Correa in Orange County in the top Senate fight too.

Governor rewards illegal aliens

2006-06-15T14:22:00.000-07:00

Finally, the GOP members of the legislature were hanging tough against a proposal to fund counties that give health benefits for illegals. So of course the team leader abandoned them today by advoctaing for the extra funding for illegals. (See here.)

So here is the question. The governors want them to get health care to illegal alien children, but won't sign a bill to let their mommies drive there with a drivers license.

IF Arnold wins in November, how long will it be before he signs a license for illegals bill?

Governor Screws the Pooch

2006-06-13T14:22:00.000-07:00

Today the Governor's Bus Tour continued into Fresno. Attorney General candidate and local State Senator Chuck Poochigian waited two hours to be part of the event only to have the Governor ignore him. Not one word.

Maybe the Governor will dual endorse Jerry Brown?

November Predictions

2006-06-09T08:32:00.000-07:00

Governor--Angelides is going to beat Arnold

Lt. Gov—Tom McClintock is the top of the ticket

Secretary of State—Close race between Bruce McPherson & Debra Bowen. Who Cares.

Controller—Tony Strickland because Chiang doesn’t believe in negative campaigning.

Treasurer—Rumor is Claude Parrish is just gearing up to run for future Assembly race and want to finish with respect against Lockyer.

Attorney General—Jerry Brown edges out Poochigian.

Insurance Commissioner—Cruz Bustamante because Poizner will have some major problems (not just with Republican slates but direct mail attacks against him).

Race Card Played in 65th AD Campaign

2006-06-08T09:32:00.000-07:00

In a campaign largely coordinated and funded by San Bernardino County Supervisor and Republican Party Chairman Bill Postmus, the race of one of the opponents of his chosen candidate, Paul Cook, was made a major closing issue in the race.

In one mail piece directly funded by the Cook campaign, Cook attacks second-place finisher Brenda Salas for naming a street in her hometown of Banning after local businessman Maurice Calderon "to honor the winner the Consuledo de Mexico Premio Ohtli Award." Cook calls it an award "for service to the people from Mexico."

In reality, the award was to recognize service to his local community, the Inland Empire, and highlight ways Mexico and the U.S. can work together. The award ceremony was attended by dozens of local elected officials as well as business and community leaders including the CSU San Bernardino Air Force ROTC.

In fact, Calderon is from one of the most highly respected families in the region and the street was named after his family by the developer in recognition of the generations of service they have provided to the community.

As a local mayor, Cook knows better than to think a Councilmember would have the authority to name a street. He was simply trying to make the point that it was a Mexican that was being honored hoping that would hightlight Salas' Mexican heritage and turn off some voters in the current racially-charged atmosphere.

Calderon was the Arrowhead Credit Union Senior Vice President at the time. Ironically, the Arrowhead Credit Union donated $1000 to Cook's campaign.

Cook, who highlighted his leadership abilities as a retired Marine colonel, has been pleading ignorance, telling people that he had no idea Calderon was attacked in the mail piece presumably approved by him and sent out by his campaign.

In an even more insidious, and possibly more effective attack, in a mail piece billed as a "GOP Voter Guide," the photos of all the candidates are used. The photo of Salas is obviously darkened to stress her Hispanic ancestry.

There was a third such attack in the race although it is still unclear if it was the Cook campaign or the Ayres campaign that was responsible for it. A man with an exaggerated Mexican accent called voters saying he was from a Democratic Party organization claiming they were endorsing Salas "informing" them she supported illegal immigration. People who heard the message commented that the person making the call lost his accent as the call went on. Salas, of course, was the candidate supported by the Minuteman Project and, according to her campaign literature, is a founding member of the Inland Empire Minuteman Project.

Although this third incident fits comfortably into the Cook/Postmus campaign's pattern of racially-based attacks, one of Ayres' consultants was noted taking credit for the anonymous phone call.

The Democrats have been largely successful in deflecting on Republicans their own historically racist role in politics. But it seems too many Republicans are willing to embrace the part the Democrats have accused us of playing.

Screaming racism is, of course, a common Democratic tactic. Yet as Republicans know, most affirmative action programs are racist themselves, designed to keep minorities in poverty and thereby relying on the government (in the form of Democratic politicians) for their survival.

But the sad fact in this case is that many Republicans can't recognize a racially motivated attack when it is true. The chances are there will not be a legislative candidate like Salas - a conservative, Hispanic, female, elected official - for at least another decade. If Republicans were really serious about becoming a majority in California, she is exactly the type of candidate we need to attract.

No one has yet said Paul Cook or Bill Postmus are racists. But they certainly proved skilled at playing the race card and running a racially inflammatory campaign.

No Party For Arnold

2006-06-05T10:29:00.003-07:00

For the first time in at least 20 years--there will be no official California Republican Party "Victory Party". On Arnold's orders this tradition has ended. There will be many local party parties, but none that Arnold will be at.

Normally, the party would highlight a GOP incumbent during election night coverage of the Dem primary.

Unlike Wilson and Deukmejian, Arnold's staff doesn't want the Governor linked to the GOP.

Maybe they think it will confuse voters...or Arnold.

Quick Thoughts on Field

2006-06-02T08:31:00.000-07:00

Today’s Field Poll is out – as was broken here before the other blogs got wind of it.

In it were many a point of fascination.

On the Dem side, the story of a tight race misses the point. The story is two-fold. First is that Angelides is surging. From April when he was down 11-points, Phil is back and certainly has the momentum.

The other story is that the supposed Westly lead never really existed. In all of the earlier Field studies, dating back to June ’05, Angelides was up. It was only when Westly was on TV with a big puff buy and Phil wasn’t on tv at all that Westly took a lead.

When things have been even – Phil’s been winning. I expect Election Day to be no different.

I believe the other story is the growing dissatisfaction with the Governor among the GOP base.

A candidate image portion of their January ’04 study found the Governor with 10% disapproval among Republicans. Today, the unfavorable number rests at exactly double that (that's 20% for my public school pals).

Many conservatives have been warning that the Governor’s leftward leanings could cost him at the ballot box. This would appear to validate those fears.

Steve Frank Offers Predictions for Tuesday

2006-06-01T17:28:00.000-07:00

State Controller
- Tony Stricklland by 10 points

Treasurer
- Keith Richman by 5 points

Board of Equalization
- Michelle Steel by 10 points against Ray Haynes

Assembly winners:
- Martin Garrick

- Joel Anderson

- Mike DuVall

- Kevin Jeffries

- Diane Harman

- Audra Strickland

- Stan Ellis (Bakersfield)

- Tom Berryhill

Congress
- Brian Bilbray by 5 points in Special

- Richard Pombo by 30 points

- Elton Gallegly by 40 points

Supervisor
- John Moorlach in Orange County wins

- Judy Mikels, 3 term incumbent barely makes run off against Jim Dantona in Ventura County

- Pat Bates easily beats Cassie DeYoung for supervisor in Orange County

- Bill Horn barely wins re-election as San Diego Supervisor

Other
- Corona wins re-election for Sheriff in Orange County

- Prop. 81 passes

- Prop. 82 fails

- Westly beast Angelides by 2 points for Democrat nomination for Governor

- Garamendi wins by 15 points over closest Democrat for Lt. Governor

- Dunn beats Chiang for Democrat nomination for Controller

- Brown easily beats Delgadillo for Attorney General nomination

FIELD POLL HAS WESTLY CLINGING TO SLIGHT LEAD

2006-06-01T17:20:00.000-07:00

Democratic Primary

Westly 35%,
Angelides 34%
Other 5%
Undecided 26%

General Election

Arnold 44%
Westly 42%

Arnold 46%
Angelides 39%

Faith, Family and Keith Richman

2006-05-27T19:08:00.000-07:00

Everyone knows that in order to be on slates--you have to pay. Everyone knows that some slates are for sale to the highest bidder.

Keith Richman is a GOP lawmaker with a proven pro-gay and pro-abortion agenda. He was the only GOP Assembly member NOT to support the parental notification initiative.

Now, Keith Richman has bought on to the "Family, Faith and Freedom" Slate. Proof is here.

Claude Parrish is no conservative hero. But Keith Richman??

The owners of this slate should change their name to "Family, Faith and Funds".

Any other good slate stories out there?

Time for Plescia to go

2006-05-24T21:48:00.000-07:00

Did you see the Plescia letter "welcoming" President Fox to California. Click here. The CA GOP was dumb enough to send it around to their email list. How does this help us???

This on top of losing control of some members of his caucus who vote for bond deals.

Time for change.

My Picks for 2006 Dem Primary

2006-05-19T21:20:00.000-07:00

Governor—Phil Angelides

Lt Gov—John Garamendi

Controller—Johnny Chiang

Secretary of State—Debra Bowen

Attorney General—Jerry Brown

BOE 4th District—Jerome Horton

Ethically challenged Jim Ayres at it again

2006-05-18T18:21:00.000-07:00

Jim Ayres' attempt to deceive the voters about his military record was already exposed by the L.A. Times. Now he's apparently colluding with some potential "independent" expenditures.

A look at his redesigned website suddenly shows a wealth of information about his opponents all set up in a nice, neat fashion for someone to use. He even has high resolution photos of his opponents.

Amusingly, he even has a scan of a mail piece someone did attacking him on his fake medals. It's one of the best of the season.

Now the real question: Is there really anyone who thinks this guy has a chance to win?

Did GWBA Deliberately Leak the Memo?

2006-05-18T08:55:00.000-07:00

A big fuss has been about the leaked GWBA memo here and here.

Yesterday, Adam Probolsky wrote about the dilema he faces when people ask him his thoughts about a particular race because he has information that isn't available for public consumption.

So when you ask a political consultant how a client of is going to do - keep in mind that the answer might be more wishful thinking rather than a cold assessment of the race OR perhaps in the case of one present client--their consultant is downplaying the candidates' chances as to not raise suspicion to his/her front runner status.[emphasis added]

I think GWBA deliberately released this memo. GWBA wants us to believe that Waldron is the underdog and Adam (who does a lot of work for GBWA clients) is along for the ride. By releasing this memo, GWBA hopes to slow down Garrick because Garrick is closing and Waldron doesn't have enough money to keep up.

Adam even said, everything that comes from his mount (and presumably his keyboard) is potentally BS. At least he admits it.

AD74: GBWA Memo Spreads Like Wildfire

2006-05-17T20:23:00.000-07:00

“It is going to take substantially more money,” says Chris Wysocki to Marie Waldron.

California Campaigns has received a copy of an internal memo (mentioned earlier on the FlashReport), sent from GBWA partner Chris Wysocki to 74th AD candidate Marie Waldron, in which Wysocki bluntly lays out the dire straights of Waldron’s campaign.

The conventional wisdom has been that Waldron should hold a significant lead at the moment, and that Garrick would have to play catch up. Being that Garrick has an extensive monetary advantage, most insiders thought it’d be a battle of whether his money could surpass her institutional support by election day.

Throw those thoughts out the window.

In fact, her unfavorables are a full third higher than her favorables in her home town of Escondido.

Wysocki begins his analysis by bluntly writing, “Clearly, if the election were held today, we could come in third place. Your favorable ratings in Escondido are a significant concern, and we have to immediately bolster your positives in your home town.”

Chris' solution? Going negative. His summary states "His leasing office space to the Mexican Trade Center is a net negative of 29.2%," and "His Lincoln Property development is a net negative of 18.4%, as is his being a former city council candidate that lost." Most telling of GBWA's ensuing food fight is "His biggest hurdle is the tax lien issue (65.6 less likely to 1.6 more likely)."

This race looks to get ugly: fast. But with no base, and no money, Waldron seems t-o-a-s-t.

Arnold feeds the Gay Agenda

2006-05-17T16:07:00.000-07:00

The Governor must not need pro-family conservatives is planning a fundraiser for the Log Cabin Club of California. Here is the story. The National Log Cabin Club rejected the George Bush campaign. In California they've attacked Assemblyman Tim Leslie. Now they will have more money to attack traditional marriage and support the several bills in the legislature forcing Homosexual ideology be placed in our schools. Three cheers for the GOP!!!

The Goldwater dictum

2006-05-17T13:31:00.000-07:00

In two heavily Republican Assembly District Primaries, conservative divisions open doors for liberals.

William E. Saracino

“Let’s grow up conservatives. We want to take this Party back, and I think someday we can. Let’s get to work”

— Senator Barry Goldwater, withdrawing his name from nomination at the 1960 Republican National Convention.

Conservative political acumen will be tested in two Assembly Primaries June 6: those in the 59th and 77th A.D.s. Do conservatives have their act together? Or will they continue to allow internecine warfare to elect liberals in solidly conservative districts? These elections will tell.

The 59th district covers the San Gabriel Valley in L.A. County and the southwestern portion of San Bernardino County. Conservative incumbent Dennis Mountjoy is termed out. The candidates to succeed him are conservatives Anthony Adams and Barry Hartz, along with liberal Chris Lancaster. A long time activist in San Bernardino County, Adams has been campaigning hard for more than a year. His fundraising total is close to $400,000. He has the endorsements of tax-limits activist Lew Uhler, Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the Club for Growth, and former CRP Chairman and CRA President Mike Schroeder. He is on most conservative slate cards. Coming from a “safe” district like the 59th, Adams as Assemblyman would no doubt become a conservative leader in the Assembly.

His main opponent is liberal Chris Lancaster. Recalled from the Covina City Council for ram-rodding an unpopular tax, Lancaster’s public employee union pals subsequently poured tons of money into electing him to that body again. Rewarding their largess, Lancaster opposed last year’s Prop. 75, which would have brought fairness and democracy to public employee unions. When the 59th district became open, Lancaster quit the Covina Council and moved to La Verne so he could run. His endorsement list is topped by the Teamsters and the AFL-CIO. They can be expected to open their checkbooks wide for him.

If this were the end of the story — a carpet-bagging union sock puppet running against a solid conservative — there’d be little to write about. Adams would win easily. But third candidate Barry Hartz has the potential to split the district’s conservative majority. Hartz, like Adams, is a solid conservative but started his campaign quite late and has limited fundraising potential. His $75,000 is only a fifth of Adams’ total. He holds the formidable endorsements of Dennis and Dick Mountjoy and the CRA, but little else. He has as much chance of winning as I have of getting that date with Nicky Hilton, but he could siphon enough conservative votes from Adams to nominate Lancaster. In this race, conservatives have a chance, by how they cast their votes, to show the state — and the union hacks — that they’ve moved beyond falling into such childish traps ... or that they haven’t.

A similar story is evolving in the suburban San Diego County 77th A.D., although the two conservatives — businessman Joel Anderson and charter school principal Debbie Beyer — are a bit more evenly matched. Beyer, endorsed by outgoing incumbent Jay La Suer, local Rep. Duncan Hunter, and Assemblyman Tim Leslie, had, at last report, $85,000 cash on hand. Anderson, who had about $150,000 on hand, is supported by state Sen.s Tom McClintock and Bill Morrow, Assemblymen Mark Wyland, and Ray Haynes; the CRA, the Jarvis Taxpayers Association, and the lion’s share of local conservative activists.

They are opposed on the ballot by two markedly less conservative candidates. As in the 59th, a conservative would easily win a straight conservative vs. moderate Primary, but Beyer is a potential spoiler. She is a valuable conservative worker, spreading the Charter School success story and educational-choice gospel, but ... between the two, Joel Anderson is of a higher order of magnitude. He seems to have been present in every noteworthy conservative cause or campaign in San Diego during at least the last 15 years. He is a tested, proven fighter who won’t wilt under pressure. Conservatives rallying in the Assembly will instinctively look to Anderson; Democrats seeking GOP defectors will waste no time talking to Joel.

Liberals cannot beat either Anthony Adams or Joel Anderson. Only conservatives can do that. Have conservatives heeded Barry Goldwater’s words? The returns primary night will tell.

Downright Shameful Indeed

2006-05-12T08:47:00.000-07:00

Candidate's Military Record Embellished
By H.G. Reza and Ashley Powers
May 12, 2006

An Assembly candidate from the Inland Empire who protested his opponent's ballot designation as a "Retired Marine Colonel" admitted this week that his own military service record had been exaggerated on his campaign website.

Jim Ayres, a Republican running in the 65th Assembly District, claimed to have earned a Gulf War combat award that Air Force officials said he was not given. He also said he received a Cold War medal when in fact he was the recipient of a certificate available to anyone who served during the Cold War.

Ayres' military record was corrected on his campaign website Wednesday after The Times interviewed him.

"It's a mistake on our website," said Ayres, who served 21 years in the military. "In no way, shape or form were we trying to mislead anybody."

The Ayres campaign funded a lawsuit earlier this year that unsuccessfully challenged the ballot designation of his opponent, Ret. Col. Paul Cook, who received a Bronze Star for valor and two Purple Hearts for service in Vietnam.

Ayres argued that Cook should not be allowed to refer to himself as a "Retired Marine Colonel" because he was now a college professor. Cook declined to comment Thursday about the controversy over Ayres' military resume. But he said he was still angry over the lawsuit.

"When he goes after me for being a Marine, I take umbrage," said Cook, who served for more than two decades in the military. "I'm very proud of being a career Marine."

Military credentials can be important to candidates in this Republican-heavy community that includes the cities of Hemet, Yucaipa and Twentynine Palms, home to a Marine base.

Ayres, who spent most of his military service in the Air Force Reserve, has highlighted his service record throughout his campaign.

On his website and in printed campaign materials, Ayres said he was awarded a Southwest Asia Service Medal for valor and a Cold War medal.

All veterans of the Gulf War qualified for the Southwest Asia Service medal, which was not given for valor, said Tech Sgt. Robert C. Mims, an Air Force spokesman.

Ayres received the Southwest medal, Mims said.

On the candidate's website Thursday, it stated that Ayres received the "Southwest Asia Service Medal with Bronze Star."

In this case, the "Bronze Star" refers to a bronze service star, which is pinned on campaign ribbons signifying participation in a particular operation.

Ayres' military record shows he was awarded an Air Force Outstanding Unit Award for valor issued to each member in his unit, Mims said.

Mims said Ayres also received a Cold War certificate for service during the Cold War years.

"But it's not a medal, and it's not an official Air Force decoration," Mims said. "Anybody who served in the military during the Cold War [from Sept. 2, 1945 to Dec. 26, 1991] qualifies for the certificate."

Ayres described his jobs in the military as a "parachute packer" and "survival equipment specialist."

Ayres, whose military service spanned from 1982 to 2003, said the distinction between a certificate and a medal was minimal.

"Does it make that much more difference whether it's a medal or certificate?" he said. "It's a medal that you can purchase based on the certificate. Is it recognized by the Department of Defense? No."

On Thursday, Ayres referred further questions to Tim Clark, his campaign consultant. Clark said the website changes were made by the webmaster, whom he said "had a typo that he corrected." He said Ayres never intended to mislead the voters.

"[Ayres] has served admirably," Clark said. "Any attempt to attack his service record is downright shameful."

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-credentials12may12,1,3367826.story

Ouch. This on the heels of the YRs doing IEs calling Ayres a tax-raiser, and YAF filing a federal complaint against him. Bad week.

Down & Dirty in AD 65th

2006-05-11T12:55:00.000-07:00

Cal-YAF Files Federal Complaint Against Jim Ayres
Calls for prosecution for “egregious” violations of the ‘Hatch Act’

California Young Americans for Freedom last week filed a complaint with the United States Department of Justice - Office of Special Counsel, regarding a potential significant violation of the Federal Hatch Act by 65th Assembly District candidate Jim Ayres.

FACT: The Hatch Act, first passed in 1939 in reaction to political abuses by the Democratic Party, is a safeguard to prevent federal, state and local government employees from exploiting their office for partisan political advantage.

FACT: Specifically, the Act prohibits local government employees “whose principal employment is in connection with an activity which is financed in whole or in part by loans or grants” by the federal government, such as Jim Ayres, from running in a partisan election.

FACT: From November 9, 1998 to March 6, 2006 , Jim Ayres was an employee of the Riverside County Economic Development Agency, a county program which received significant funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development through Community Development Block Grants.

FACT: Employees in County programs funded by the Federal government are subject to the restrictions of the Hatch Act. The Federal government may punish violations in Riverside County by requiring the dismissal of the offending employee and barring further Federal funding for Riverside County for two years,

FACT: Starting on January 18, 2005 , while employed with the county – more than a year prior to taking a leave of absence – Ayres actively campaigned and solicited contributions for the Republican nomination for State Assembly.

This appears to be in direct violation of the Hatch Act.

“California YAF is sick and tired of the ‘Culture of Corruption’ that has plagued our Country,” commented Cal-YAF Chairman Brandon Powers . “It is in this light that Cal-YAF has filed a complaint against Jim Ayres.

“This appears to be a most basic and egregious violation of the Hatch Act,” added Cal-YAF’s attorney Michael MacLellan. “The Hatch Act was passed to prevent government employees from doling out federal dollars in acts of patronage to influence elections. It spelled out very clear and concise do’s and don’ts for partisan candidates, rules Mr. Ayres apparently feels he is above following.”

“Cal-YAF has submitted a letter to the Office of Special Counsel calling for it ‘to immediately initiate an investigation regarding our claim that Mr. Ayres may have violated the Hatch Act and further calls upon the OSC to take all appropriate actions, including a prosecutorial referral to the US Merit Systems Protection Board and appropriate sanctions against Mr. Ayres and the County of Riverside for any violations of the Hatch Act,’” added Powers.

Coming Soon: More from Cal-YAF’s investigation of Jim Ayres…

Taxpayers Be Damned

2006-05-10T12:04:00.000-07:00

As has been much publicized, last week the Legislature took up votes on bonds of varying sizes, shapes, colors. These votes were probably the most significant of the session to protect taxpayers.

Those who voted, waited until the wee hours of the morning to let their choices be heard…

Not everyone though, actually waited those hours to vote.

For example, where was Ray Haynes?

Well, he wasn’t in Sacramento at the time of the vote. That’s for sure. While he’s running to supposedly protect taxpayers on the Board of Equalization, Ray apparently can’t be troubled to stay in Sacramento to cast the most important vote in defense of taxpayers this year.

It makes one wonder what the point of running for office is if his “campaign” takes precedence over performing existent obligations.

But, I guess Ray figures if enough voters are “caressed” between now and Election Day, he might have a shot to keep his day job on the public dole.

Additionally though, as Ray likes to champion himself a stalwart Republican – despite his past of being a Democrat – Ray took the example his ideological soulmates introduced last week by taking his $153 per diem for just “showing up” to the Capitol at all that day.

Ray Haynes ditched California taxpayers when they needed him most. Soon, they’ll be able to return the favor.

Turn Out the Lights, The Party's Over

2006-05-05T09:36:00.000-07:00

Conservatives have also been told to vote for Republicans that are socially liberally, "because they are fiscally conservative." The Governor was a case in point. "The other guy will spend and spend."

Turns out the other guy was us. Does anyone believe that Gray Davis would have led us into this kind of debt? Would Runner, Dutton, Plescia, Ackerman and company vote for this bond had a Democrat proposed it? Hell no!

With the spending addicts in Sacramento and Washington D.C. running the show, what can the GOP say about fiscal responsibility with a straight face?

The Bonds may pass. The Governor may even be re-elected. But who cares? More debt, more government waste and an eventual tax increase will be the GOP's legacy. Thanks Governor!

Chuck Devore has it right here.

Why Is Tony Winning?

2006-05-03T02:31:00.000-07:00

Back-to-back public polls (here and here) have Tony Strickland up on Abel Maldonado in their race for the Republican nomination for Controller.

First to release was the Field Poll (FIELD, as the old joke goes, stands for Findings InEvitably Lean Democratic), which had Tony Strickland with a 9-point edge (23-14).

Next to come was the LA Times poll, which found Tony with a 7-point lead (18-11).

Two polls, Tony up in both.

With a termed-out Assemblyman against a Bay Area Senator, it is highly unlikely that either candidate really has the requisite statewide name-id to explain any sort of preference with the voters.

Even more interesting were Field’s findings that despite a 9-point ballot test edge, the candidates’ favorables/unfavorables are:

Abel – 11/12
Tony – 9/8

So, how does anyone explain Tony being up given this?

Could it be as simple as Republican Primary voters being leery of a Hispanic-named candidate? Or is Tony’s history as a conservative activist more explanatory? Or something else?

Is Haynes Receiving a Cristich Payback?

2006-04-18T12:38:00.000-07:00

If you thought Chuck Devore’s huge margin of victory over Clinton Gore Supporter Cristi Cristich in 2004’s primary for the 70th Assembly District was the last you heard of her playing in Republican Politics, you were wrong. Last night, on the Secretary of State’s website a $4600 donation popped up from John Milazzo (Cristich’s husband) to the Ray Haynes for BOE Campaign (note, he had already given $1000 before). Many insiders who have watched the BOE race know that the Cristich endorsement during 2004 cost Haynes the YRFC Endorsement, as well as CRA. So the question is, does a Ray Haynes endorsement cost $5600? Ray Haynes conservative credentials were put into question when he endorsed Cristich, and now his ethics are put into question when he takes money from her husband. Maybe his poor fundraising has forced him to even stoop to this level.

Why was the 50th CD was different?

2006-04-15T15:59:00.000-07:00

Chris Cox gets to be SEC Chairman. John Campbell scares everyone out of the race.

Bill Thomas retires. Kevin McCarthy scares everyone out of the race.

Duke Cunningham goes to jail. Bill Morrow who has run for Congress and represented the area for 14 years gets beat by a liberal former congressman, a rich guy know one knows and Howard Kaloogian.

What was the difference? My theory is the district wasn't worked very good during those 14 years. Sorry, Bill but the sun is not coming up Morrow.

2 Cookie Cutter Campaigns = 2 Loses?

2006-04-11T21:25:00.000-07:00

1. Diane Harkey 35th State Senate

2. Brian Bilbray 50th Congressional

Am I jumping the gun?

RMR: The Gang That Can't Seem To Shoot Straight

2006-04-03T14:42:00.000-07:00

What’s with the crew up at Russo, Marsh, and Rogers? Are they really this bad?

They’re running Howard Kaloogian’s campaign for the CD50 Special that has taken a lot of fire for photo mishaps.

Aren’t these the same guys that were running Bill Simon’s campaign that had similar… problems?

McCain-Feingold: The Sequel

2006-04-02T16:40:00.000-07:00

Stallone’s original Rocky took Best Picture. Rocky 2, stunk.

The original Godfather was among the best greatest flicks ever. Godfather 2 didn’t measure up.

In other words, sequels in the movies aren’t nearly as good as their original takes.

Same goes for legislation.

This week, the House will take up HR513, the far more draconian sequel to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill.

McCain-Feingold was the legislative action that, among other things, created the silly 30 and 60 day restrictions to television ads before elections, thus making more prominent the usage of direct mail as the weapon of choice for PACs heading towards Election Day.

However, HR513 will further erode people’s rights to “petition the government for a redress of grievances.” It takes away the ability for almost any advertising heading towards elections.

The bill is a travesty, and I hope it dies. However, giving Congressmen the ability to regulate potential opponents’ abilities to criticize them going into an election year seems the height of conflicted interests.

We’ll see what happens.

AAPC President Wayne Johnson on Nofziger's Passing

2006-03-28T21:39:00.000-08:00

The Sacramento Bee carried their own page 3, staff-written story on the death of former Sen. Al Alquist this morning, and that is appropriate. What was disheatening was to see the death of Lyn Nofziger buried in the second section. It was the LA Times wire story. The Bee, at least, had a small mention on the front page directing the reader to Section B.

Both of these men were major figures in the political life of this town, but one wonders if the "institutional memory" in today's press corps may be a bit short. I will leave the well-deserved accolades to the many others who will, no doubt, share their thoughts about Lyn. It was his impish humor and delight in dreadful puns that insured a warm place in this consultant's heart.

On one occasion, I remarked to Lyn how difficult it was getting to staff the on-site teams in campaigns. "It's tough to find good political pros these days," I said. Without missing a beat, Lyn replied "It's even tougher to find good political poetry...."

Tom Kaptain on Nofziger's Professionalism

2006-03-28T00:20:00.000-08:00

To me the most impressive thing he did in terms of consulting accomplishments was his work for Mike Curb against George Deukmejian even though he lost. It’s hard for people to remember this, but at the time of that race, there was some question as to how conservative Mike Curb really was and how much he was just out for himself. Curb had supported Reagan, but he had also run a very hard hitting campaign against Mike Antonovich in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor four years before and had been supported by the moderate faction of the Republican party. On the other hand, Duke was a very well known and prominent conservative that no one had any doubts about.

However, to Nofziger, the race came down to the fact that Curb had raised significant money for Ronald Reagan in the face of pressure from the Ford White House when it looked like Reagan had no chance to win (Before the North Carolina primary). He basically browbeat conservatives into supporting Curb when most started off leaning the other way. He had so much clout among conservatives that several newspapers referred to Duekmejian as the moderate Republican in the race because they assumed Nofziger had to be for the conservative. Curb came up short, but Lyn got a lot of support for him in places where no one thought it was possible and in a lot of places where it still amazes me because you don’t see how it could be possible. Part of the credibility he had was in the fact that he never tried to come across as anything more than an average guy. He was in politics to stick up for average guys and he never forgot it.

Probably the last time I had a serious conversation about politics with him was back in the early 90’s when there was a special election for the State Assembly going on between several very conservative Republicans. He called (which surprised me because I was way below his pay grade if you will) and said he was trying to figure out if there was some way to get Democratic support for one of the candidates. He never said who the candidate was, but I believe it was Lou Barnett, because Barnett was also a Reaganaut and had lived in Burbank (where I lived) for many years and was generally liked as a nice guy. I told him that all of the candidates were way too far to the right for anyone to publicly support them, but that if he wanted to design a mailer, I would be glad to help with targeting and such. Basically, after some back and forth, Nofziger decided to pass on the idea (and so did a couple of other people I pitched the idea to because I was hoping for work), but shortly after the election, I saw him at a consultants convention and we talked about how important it was for people in politics to be able to work across party and ideological lines without compromising their core values. Too many people in politics forget that ideal nowadays (at both ends, some are too quick to compromise, some are unwilling to work with others).

Lyn Nofziger's History With YAF

2006-03-28T00:16:00.000-08:00

I was long active in California Young Americans for Freedom.

One day a young aide asked Mr. Nofziger the difference between the Young Republicans, and the Young Americans for Freedom.

"If you want to have a party," Mr. Nofziger replied, "call the YRs." "If you need to get some work done, call YAF."

This succinct evaluation was a source of longstanding pride in Cal-YAF.

JIM SILLS
Cal-YAF
Executive Director
1978-80

Peter Robinson from NRO's Corner

2006-03-27T21:09:00.000-08:00

With an elegant tap of the keys, former Reagan speechwriter Peter Robinson gives us a great memory of Lyn Nofziger.

LYNWOOD [Peter Robinson]

Lyn Nofziger was one of the toughest, funniest, smartest, and most utterly loyal men I’ve ever known. He’s also the only man I’ve ever known who wore a Mickey Mouse tie to the White House every day—not that he could abide government work, even in the White House, long enough to remain on the federal payroll very long.

When just now I saw Kathryn’s post—not a surprise, since I’d known for weeks that Lyn was dying, and had been told, this past Saturday, that he was unlikely to survive the weekend; but still, somehow, a stab to the heart—I riffled around in my notes to find a Nofziger story to share with the readers of this Corner. This one contains all the right elements: A touch of salty language, a standoff with Nancy Reagan, and a situation saved by Ronald Reagan.

The scene was in a hotel in North Carolina in 1976. Running for the Republican presidential nomination against the incumbent president, Gerald Ford, Reagan had suffered a string of primary defeats, and by the time of the North Carolina primary even some of Reagan’s well-wishers had begun to wonder whether challenging Ford had been a mistake. Nancy Reagan called Nofziger, the campaign press secretary, to the candidate’s suite. He found her there alone. “She said, ‘Lyn, we’ve got to get Ronnie out of the race,’” Nofziger told me. “’We can’t have him embarrassed.’” Nofziger disagreed with Mrs. Reagan—he felt certain Reagan could turn the campaign around—but even he thought twice about telling her so to her face.

“I’m standing there saying to myself, ‘Now, how the hell am I going to say anything to her about this?” Nofziger said. Then the candidate himself walked in. “Ronald Reagan saw instinctively what was going on. He turned to me, and he said, ‘Lynwood [Reagan’s nickname for Nofziger], I am not going to get out of this race. We’re going to stay in all the way.’ Nancy wasn’t pleased,” Lyn said, chuckling, “but she knew that was it.”

Ronald Reagan did go all the way—Lynwood at his side.

Tonight, I’d like to believe, they’re together once again.

Say A Prayer For The Nofziger's Tonight

2006-03-27T19:52:00.000-08:00

Sad news today, that conservative hero Lyn Nofziger has passed.

More on this to come, but for now just the acknowledgement that it is this sort of news that puts all of our day-to-day efforts into perspective.

UPDATE: If anyone would like to share their memories of Lyn, please email us.

Out of nostalgia, I’ve been reading back through Lyn’s famed “Musings,” his blog, before it became all the rage to blog.

I’ve also pulled his self-titled memoirs off the shelf, as it’s probably about time to give it another read.

And, for those who enjoy witty verse, ~~Lyn’s~~, er Joy Skilmer’s, Unbridled Joy is a classic.

Lastly, for anyone who likes Westerns, while I've never read them, I've just ordered Lyn's "Tackett" series online.

Bilbray the Liberal Lobbyist

2006-03-24T10:20:00.000-08:00

Brandon Powers of California Young Americans for Freedom just emailed me over a link to a fun new website: BilbrayTheLiberalLobbyist.com.

FamilyActionPAC Gives to Adams

2006-03-23T23:54:00.000-08:00

From the ElectionTrak email update of today’s campaign contributions, one stood out…

The Family Action PAC, normally a source of serious funding to OC conservative candidates has given $2,000 to Anthony Adams, running for Mountjoy’s open seat.

Is this a first (at least as far as I remember) instance for FamilyActionPAC reaching out from behind the Orange Curtain to help one of their own?

This would certainly seem to be a likely race for them to get involved in if they have indeed overcome their OC-xenophobia.

Adams, endorsed by a host of conservatives, is running against Chris Lancaster – son of former Assemblyman Bill Lancaster, who highlights among his endorsements, the Teamsters!

With Bucher and Righeimer, two of the co-authors of Prop 226 behind FamilyActionPAC, it’s no wonder they’re no fans of Lancaster’s.

We’ll be watching for further developments.

Combing the Want Ads

2006-03-22T01:34:00.000-08:00

One of the most common hypothetical questions I’ve been hearing lately is, “What is Ray Haynes going to do if he loses?”

I think it is an excellent question.

Consider the following facts:
(1)Assemblyman Haynes has not held a private sector job for the better part of a decade and a half,
(2)Assemblyman Haynes is in real danger of losing his race for BOE3 to Michelle Steel,
(3)Ray has taken an active role, despite his own campaign, for both Kevin Jeffries and Jim Ayres,
(4)and Members of the State Assembly are not permitted to lobby for one year after terming from office.

Given that, what options does Ray have for employment post-Sacramento?

The most intriguing speculative answer I’ve heard to this is that Ray has given real thought to staying in the building, only as Chief of Staff to either Jeffries or Ayres (if he makes it – he’s in a tough race in Riverside against a McClintock-endorsed candidate). Thinking about it, that does make sense.

Ray brings years of institutional knowledge, an ability to move legislation, and a top-notch Rolodex. Plus, he sure beats the series of 20-somethings that keep getting brought up to the Capitol as Chiefs of Staff.

However, talk about an ego blow! If Ray falls short in his race, it’ll be interesting to see if this speculation turns into reality.

California in 10 Years = France Today?

2006-03-21T00:24:00.000-08:00

From today's WSJ EdPage... Boy, how this doesn't sound strang at all...

How instructive it would be to send Alexis de Tocqueville through France today. He'd find dependence on the state and the absence of individualism, symbolized by the low levels of private charity and civic engagement. He would not find the bounty of groups and lobbies of healthier democracies. "In every case, at the head of any new undertaking, where in France you would find the government," Tocqueville's "Democracy in America" asserts, "in the United States you are sure to find an association."

Yes, the banners of student groups add color to the street demonstrations. But look closer. The force with real bite is the public-sector employee unions. Blue-collar workers long ago abandoned the union movement, leaving civil servants who, like Charles de Gaulle once said of France's cosseted farmers, are desperate to hold on to their "mediocre but secure" posts.

The government workforce -- one-quarter of the population -- can terrorize the majority by stopping the trains or turning off the electricity. In other words, the state funds its own opposition, which torpedoes even modest efforts to modernize France. By marching with the public-sector unions to defend this status quo, the boys and girls of the Sorbonne are saying they want to be "mediocre but secure," too. What a dream for a 20-year-old. And a useful warning to Americans about the danger of giving public-sector unions too much power as well.

With Gallegly serving one more term, let Campaign 2008 begin

2006-03-15T14:17:00.000-08:00

Well not exactly. Because the campaign really can't begin until we see the results of the statewide elections in November. If McClintock is not elected LG, he will undoubtedly seriously consider running for the seat despite his well-known aversion to Washington DC. If he jumps in, it's a lock. No one could touch him. But watch for plenty of potential candidates to make lots of noise to dissuade him from running. But McClintock will hopefully act in the best interest of California conservatives and make the run.

Why the Wyman Hatred?

2006-03-08T14:15:00.000-08:00

Matt Rexroad has posted that he'll work for free to manage an IE against Phil Wyman if he runs for the Assembly again. You don't usually see that with political hacks, but I guess Matt knows there are always ways to skim off the top.

But the bigger question is why the hatred for Phil Wyman. Rexroad isn't the only one with this passionate hatred and this hatred isn't limited to liberals either. There are conservatives who hate Wyman just as passionately.

Among conservatives, the worst anyone has really been able to say about the guy is that he is cheap, really cheap. So what? He is one of the most solid conservative votes there is. I'd vastly prefer Wyman over a good portion of the hacks in Sacramento right now.

Haynes Not Even Close on Endorsement

2006-03-06T09:47:00.000-08:00

As they say on OC Blog, this came over the transom yesterday.

Haynes Wins CRA Vote by
Overwhelming Margin
85-67 vote just short of formal endorsement

(Bakersfield, CA) Delegates to the statewide California Republican Assembly convention in Bakersfield supported Assemblyman Ray Haynes by an overwhelming margin Sunday morning, falling just short of an outright endorsement [emphasis added] in the heavily contested race for Board of Equalization.

“It was a great weekend with fellow conservatives and I am very happy to have received such strong support form the grassroots of our party,” said Ray Haynes, a veteran conservative Assemblyman from Riverside County.

Momentum has been building fast for the Haynes campaign, which announced two major endorsements last week, the National Rifle Association and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

Based on these counts, there is a minimum of 152 votes (possibly more depending on non-voters). Ray would've needed at least 100 votes to receive the endorsement. Losing by a 15 vote spread is not "falling just short of an outright endorsement."

Anyone who thinks otherwise has not run a CRA endorsement drill - you don't find blocks of 15 votes lying around underneath chair cushions - especially when according to comments on this and other blogs, your candidate has a melt-down in the middle of the convention.

CRA Convention Spin Machine

2006-03-05T18:55:00.000-08:00

One of the blogs is going crazy over the CRA convention trying to spin who won and who lost.

Let's unspin the events:

1. Ray Haynes was expected to get the CRA endorsement. Ray's campaign goal was to get the CRA endorsement and it wasn't their goal to "block" the endorsement.

2. Michelle Steel's goal was to block the CRA endorsement (of course the campaign was saying that they were going for the endorsement but I am sure the insiders were just going for a block).

Would the Steel campaign been happy with the endorsement? Yes. Was the amount of money they spent (registering delegates, paying staff, and hospitality suite) worth it to get a block? Yes.

Winner: Michelle Steel Campaign

Reading some of the posts from HnF, there were some comments made about a shouting match between Brandon Powers (YAF Chairman) and Assemblyman Ray Haynes. Anyone want to enlighten us?

Nehring AWOL at CRP

2006-03-03T09:50:00.000-08:00

Who is he fighting for? That's the big question about current CRP Vice-Chair Ron Nehring after last weeks California Republican Party Convention.

Friday and Saturday Ron Nehring who hopes to be Party Chair someday was every where.

Speaking here and there.

On Sunday. After the voice vote to defeat the "right wing" resolution on behalf of a balanced budget, against the minimum wage hike and for bond reform a standing vote was called for.

Where was Nehring? Walking of the stage so his vote could not be seen nor heard.

A Majority of the elected board supported the conservative side. But to both sides at least they stood up for what they believed in.

Nehring chickened out. That makes him the perfect CRP Chairman candidate.

Showdown at the CRA Corral

2006-03-02T18:37:00.000-08:00

This weekend, the troglodyte-wing of the Republican Party, as Bob Mulholland would put it, is meeting in Bakersfield for the CRA’s Annual Convention.

Most of the endorsements are already decided. Tony over Abel. Big shock.

The only fight left is for BOE, Seat 3 – where Assemblyman Ray Haynes faces off against BOE Chief Deputy Michelle Steel.

Ten, five, heck, even 3 years ago, this race would’ve been a slam dunk – Ray all the way.

But a few things have happened that if I were voting would have me going all out for Mrs. Steel.

First was back in 2003, during the Recall, when Ray Haynes fell all over himself and twisted himself like a pretzel trying to make the case that Arnold was conservative (in hindsight, um Ray, you were wrong). He also went on a jihad against Tom McClintock – going so far as calling him selfish!

Then, the following year – last election cycle – Ray endorsed AGAINST Chuck DeVore, supporting instead an illegal alien hiring, fake endorsement touting, former President of California Republicans for Bill Clinton! Ray now claims that it was an aberration, and that when he found out about the facts, he quickly endorsed all the candidates in the race to make up for it… But that isn’t what happened. Long afterwards, Ray was taking Cristich around the Capitol, telling other members and insiders that she was far more conservative than others were saying, trying to expend his conservative political capital for such a leftist.

And lastly, following out of that, it emerged that Ray had been having an affair (his second). Now, I’m not normally someone who gets into people’s personal lives, but the details here warrant it. First of all, it was the second time he’d cheated on a wife with a staffer. Secondly, this time the flavor-of-the-month was none other than Cristich’s campaign manager, Gina Zari. I don’t want to let this blog fall into the name-calling, juvenile wars that others have. But I do want to make this point because it IS relevant: when Ray’s judgment and credibility as a conservative can be influenced by liberal pillow talk, it does become our business, and does cost him my support.

For these three reasons, if Bakersfield were on my itinerary for the weekend, my vote would be going to Michelle Steel.

McGill Surging and Jubal Cringing

2006-03-02T18:05:00.000-08:00

The noticeable bias over at OCBlog against conservative Assembly candidate Mike McGill has been so blatant that this blogger who doesn’t even live behind the Orange Curtain has stood up and taken notice.

As blogger-in-chief, Mighty Jubal, so often says, over the transom I received the attached communiqué from the McGill campaign yesterday, on-point offsetting much of the criticism that’s plagued McGill’s campaign – namely, that Jim Silva himself is guilty of going clepto on other people’s property in his capacity of an elected official.

Steve Greenhut must be licking his chops.

I’ll leave for others to decide why Jubal has taken such a ferocious approach towards McGill and such a loving one towards Silva, just throwing out the most intriguing theory to come across the CalCampaigns email: that Jubal is none other than former Silva mouthpiece Matt Cunningham.

Whatever the case, the bias is there, and as such, it was no surprise that the OCBlog failed to post this damning piece on Mr. Silva.

Furthermore, irrespective of horses in this race, I’ve been blown over by the progress the McGill campaign has made of late. From nowhere just a few weeks ago, to active engagement with Silva, the prestigious HJTA endorsement, and just recently the endorsement from the CRA – the “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval” from conservative activists, this guy in playing to win and apparently has quite a few conservatives with him.

McGill’s campaign has been turned around 180-degrees, and while probably not quite yet front-runners, they certainly have the momentum – so much so that Silva’s notorious thin skin led him to send out a reactionary introductory mailer (Dave, correct me if I’m wrong, but probably just a TAD sooner than the original mail schedule called for?).

Having come around from complete disinterest, I’ll be keeping an eye on this race.

General Election Attack on Daucher???

2006-03-01T11:32:00.000-08:00

Daucher will be attacked in the General election by a conservative group. This group already has been promised significant funds for a full scale attack.

Democrats will keep this seat for the next four years.

Assembly GOP Leadership Battle

2006-02-27T17:54:00.000-08:00

Tom Del Beccaro has it that McCarthy will soon be stepping down to undertake a Congressional race (more sure to come on that later), and that Plescia, Keene, and Walters are all vying to replace him.

Anything anyone hears, we'll be trying our best to stay atop this.

As Drudge would say, DEVELOPING...

The Battle Begins

2006-02-23T13:53:00.000-08:00

Tony Strickland last night released a call for Governor Schwarzenegger to take action against Meathead’s use of taxpayer funds to pump his First5 Initiative.

It’s about time.

Without primaries for Gov, LG, really AG, Treasurer being a bore, as well as IC, the Controller’s primary is all we really have.

To this point, it’s been cat and mouse.

I’m glad one of the sides is finally making some move, any move.

You can see the pdf of Tony’s release here.

Kurzner Sees The Writing On The Wall

2006-02-15T13:19:00.000-08:00

Rumors abound that good guy (but political lightweight) Phil Kurzner has pulled out of the race for Insurance Commissioner, saving billionaire candidate Steve Poizner from having to expend the resources to crush him in the Primaries, leaving him more to do battle with Bustamante come November.

Analysis: Only move for Phil. Save face, try to broker a deal. Great news for Poizner, who gets to save up for Cruz.

McClintock's chance to control the party

2006-02-13T10:28:00.000-08:00

Let's face it, even if Schwarzenegger wins re-election, the real power in the party is now going to be Tom McClintock. Still retaining the loyalty of the CRA types to get them to pull back a bit on their Arnold bashing, he is actually being openly courted by Schwarzenegger's donors. No Republican has enjoyed such support in California since Reagan (after his first election - the moderates hated him at first but they "grew"). His run for LG is really just the first step in a race for governor in 2010.

So now what does McClintock do? First he has to grab hold of the party apparatus. He does that by supporting good conservatives for party posts who also know how to win elections. He has the standing in the party to get pretty much whatever he asks for and his support for the governor should be contingent on Schwarzenegger accepting McClintock picks for party posts (including helping Dufus from making an early exit.). This is what the CRA should be working on to actually get things done and change the party for the better. Let's hope McClintock is working behind the scenes to do just that.

Stop Phil-lary!

2006-02-12T20:26:00.000-08:00

Phil Kurzner, Joel Strom, and the RMR Cast have been trying to walk a very fine line in the good doctor’s long-shot bid for the Republican nomination for Insurance Commish, trying both to portray him as the carrier of the conservative flag, but at the same time, pro-choice enough to appeal to folks like failed US Senate candidate Toni Casey.

It’s because of the first half of that balancing act that I don’t understand how this article was ever put out. “Phillary” openly, proudly, and I guess boldly calls for tax raises to pay for Hillary-style health insurance…

Getting to the right of someone by calling for tax increases… that’s a new one for me!

I’m quite grateful to that the article has been broadly published in time for the upcoming CRP Convention, so that conservative groups don’t make the foolish mistake of buying into Kurzner’s propaganda that he is an actual conservative.

McCarthy Fuels Bill Thomas Rumor

2006-02-04T22:34:00.000-08:00

The rumor that Congressman Bill Thomas is NOT going to file for reelection is getting some confirmation. Kevin McCarthy has told more than one person around the Capitol that he is making tentative plans for what he hopes will be an easy Primary contest.

It has long been rumored that Thomas, who is term-limited out of his Chairmanship, would step down this year to help ease the way for McCarthy. The Thomas people (of which McCarthy is one) believe that Sen. Roy Ashburn, who does not have a free ride, will not risk his safe Senate seat, thus leaving Kevin with only minor Primary opposition.

McCarthy has gone so far as telling some members of the Assembly that he would like to stay on as leader even if he is running for Congress. It is doubtful the Assembly GOP Caucus would go for such an arrangement. But with a talent poll about 3 inches deep, the Caucus only has two or three legitimate contenders.

Something Smells in SD 34

2006-02-04T20:04:00.000-08:00

Jim Righeimer and some of his closest friends were the loudest and most aggressive supporters of Van Tran's announcement for the State Senate.

Could it be that the real motive of certain conservatives promising Van financial support in his race against Daucher was to create an open seat so that Jim Righeimer could have a seat to run for?

And could it be that some of those same friends of Righeimer are trying to cut a deal with Dick Ackerman and some of the key GOP donors --- a deal that will leave Van hanging out there without the expected support, in exchange for donors NOT helping Righeimer's opponent, Janet Nyguen?

Don't be shocked if the much talked about campaign to take down Lyn Daucher never materializes, as Van Tran is sacrificed after giving up his seat for the conservative cause.

On the Cusp

2006-02-04T14:52:00.000-08:00

This week’s CalPeek has a bit on Meathead’s “Preschool for All” initiative, and the PPIC poll that found it starting off 63% YES, 35% NO, and 2% undecided.

Calpeek also quotes opponents of the measure saying, “Given the language tested by PPIC, we’re surprised the numbers weren’t even higher. The language they used was like testing whether people would like free ice cream on their free piece of apple pie.”

For the record, the question asked was, “How about increasing taxes by 1.7 percent on individual incomes above $400,000 dollars annually, and $800,000 for couples, to pay for voluntary public preschool for all 4-year old children?”

Among Demos it polls 77-20, among Reeps its 49-49, and 66-32 among Independents.

You can find the entire survey here.

Calpeek paraphrases opponents’ claims that when read the actual initiative language, Meethead has “a tough time getting to a simple majority.”

63% provides a fascinating figure in that it is right on the cusp between pass/no-pass for tax-increase initiatives according to pollster Bob Moore’s “Rule of Thumb,” which says that normal initiatives must start at at least 55% to stand a chance of passage, while initiatives that increase taxes have the bar set a little higher at 65%.

We'll be watching to see as more public surveys are released.

50th Congressional District

2006-02-04T14:36:00.000-08:00

Even as candidates come and go in the 50th CD special election, the race is starting to take definite shape. By most accounts, there are 5 major candidates at this time. In no particular order, Howard Kaloogian, Alan Uke, Richard Earnest, Bill Morrow, and Brian Bilbray.

Here is one person's opinion on how the race is shaping up.

Kaloogian is the conservative with the most money. He has the vast majority of movement conservative endorsements and has the ability to raise a decent amount of cash. He should be the favorite in the race based on the ideological breakdown of the candidates except for one thing - Bill Morrow. Most of my fellow conservative activists would prefer Bill Morrow as our candidate. But there have been doubts from the beginning as to whether he could raise the money to be competitive. But now it looks like he has been able to raise enough at least to be competitive - with Kaloogian. There will probably be a split in the conservative vote which can only help the others in race.

Alan Uke took off out of the gate faster than anyone. He is reportedly going to spend $2 million of his own money on the race. Uke has an impeccable business and community involvement background (most recently bringing USS Midway to San Diego as a museum). And he certainly is willing to give it all he has, financially and otherwise, to win. Not to mention he has Jim Nygren, probably the best GOP consultant in the state working for him.

Uke has the reputation as somewhat of a moderate, but insiders I talk to say with the exception of the abortion issue, he's as conservative as they come. Until a few weeks ago, another big money moderate, Ken King, claimed he was in the race and willing to spend a few million also. His abrupt departure was a tremendous boost to Uke and at this point makes him the frontrunner.

Richard Earnest is a former high tech CEO, mostly untainted by the tech bust of years past. But he is an unknown outside of his tiny city of Del Mar (where he was mayor) and has a most un-Republican love of taxes. It doesn't appear he is willing to spend the money to be competitive with Uke.

Which brings us to former Congressman Brian Bilbray. I admit to having a soft spot for Bilbray. He's aggressively anti-illegal immigration and says what he feels - even if it sometimes does get him into trouble. Against better political judgment, he voted to impeach Bill Clinton which probably lost him reelection in 2000. But he also has a troubling history of flip-flopping on major issues (guns being the biggest) when it was politically convenient. He certainly carries the most baggage of any candidate in the race.

There is talk of V. Eric Roach, a pioneer in the online trading industry, deciding to make a serious run. If that happens the dynamics of the race can radically change overnight. But for now, advantage Uke.

What Is Phil Paule Thinking?

2006-02-04T01:28:00.000-08:00

A few weeks ago, Phil Paule posted on the Flashreport, that in his esteemed opinion, Ray Haynes stood as the front runner in the race for BOE 3.

He based this on a few things:
1)Haynes’ longstanding reputation in Riverside County, a good chunk of the district,
2)Haynes’ history of writing op-eds in the OC Register and the SDUT,
and 3)What Phil calls “The Brulte factor,” that being Big Jimmy’s ability to turn on the cash spigots at a moment’s notice.

Despite those things, and as much as I personally like Ray, I just don’t see how in the wide world that can happen.

Michelle’s $415k in the bank just plain dwarfs Ray’s $77k, and even by Phil’s own admission, Michelle has the ability to self-fund – a resource she’s yet to really tap.

$77k isn’t enough to get your message out in an Assembly seat, let alone an area 20x the size of an Assembly seat!

Michelle has the slates and the cash. I don’t see how she loses.

Inside the Dome

2006-02-04T01:26:00.000-08:00

Van Tran blast-emailed/faxed everyone touting his endorsement from conservative icon leader Tom McClintock the other day. Not a big shock, as Van is night and day more conservative than Daucher.

What hasn’t made news is the fact that after doing so, Tom received a visit from a visibly unhappy Dick Ackerman, who lived up to his first name by lambasting Tom, accusing him of not being a team player, and all the rest.

Safe to say, Tom was displeased by this, and reports have Senator McClintock giving Ackerman a piece of his mind.

Good for you Tom!

For whom the bell tolls

2006-02-02T14:11:00.000-08:00

And before I forget Strickland's anemic response. I'm not kidding, this was the headline of the Strickland release in response to Maldonado's brilliant PR coup.

Maldonado Finance Report As Inconsistent as His Voting Record
Strickland and Maldonado are close in fundraising after pealing away Maldonado report gimmickry

Inconsistent? Strickland calling someone else inconsistent? At least Abel admits he's a liberal and votes that way. What is Strickland's excuse? Maybe he needs to be reminded of this.

And as a side note, the typo in the subhead is nice. Someone should tell him that "peal" means the ringing of bells. Just like the one that tolls for thee, Mr. Strickland.

Best line of the campaign season so far

2006-02-02T13:53:00.000-08:00

Comes from Jim Nygren in a press release for state Senator Abel Maldonado belittling the fundraising prowess of ex-Assemblyman Tony Strickland:

"Strickland's war chest is more like a toy chest," said Jim Nygren, Maldonado's campaign consultant. "Tony is living on borrowed time and borrowed money. When the bills come due he won't have the funds to turn the lights on, let alone mount a competitive campaign."

Particularly noteworthy is the number of loans Strickland has received (61% of his total), especially those from his mother-in-law and his wife's employees. Something seems to stink over at Team Strickland.

Correction: Adams Still Has This Race Won

2006-01-31T13:51:00.000-08:00

I hate to disagree with the venerable Mr Regan, but in this instance, I must.

Adams has this thing locked up.

Unlike Lancaster, who put his money clearly just to show a higher reporting figure, Adams started his race off with his “loan” and has shown clearly a willingness to spend what he put in. The “loan” by Adams seems more a way to recoup the money, should he win.

Additionally, Lancaster has baggage galore.

And lastly, look at those contributions: most of Brulte and Postmus’ guys have yet to weigh in. Not to mention Adams’ position as most likely to get IE support.

Again, I hate to disagree with Mr Regan, as doing so is usually at my own peril, but in this case, I think he’s wrong.

Don't call him Assemblyman Adams - At least not yet.

2006-01-31T13:33:00.000-08:00

Conventional wisdom of late is that the 59th Assembly District has been locked up by Anthony Adams, the former Bill Postmus staffer who has been running for the seat for over a year.

But Adams extremely weak campaign report may change some people's minds and prompt others to consider entering the race, even at this late date.

Adams showed only $108,000 cash on hand, with $63,000 in outstanding debts. Adams, a law student, in not personally weathly and is unable to contribute to his own cause.

Bottom line - the 59th is not a done deal. At least not yet.

Bustamante's Pathetic Disclosure

2006-01-31T13:05:00.000-08:00

Any financial facts and figures at this early a date obviously have to be taken with a grain, or a handful of salt. Candidates will continue to raise money, and so the March or May disclosures will tell much more than the disclosures out today will.

But, if we waited for those, we’d all be bored for the next two months, so lets talk about these anyways.

I’ve perused, skimmed, or examined every Reep candidates’ disclosures today, as well as the Dem ones for competitive Generals.

Most striking, out of all the pdfs I’ve been pouring over, was Cruz Bustamante’s.

I’m sure, or rather, I assume he can turn on the spigots at any moment, but at the moment, Poizner is beating him ~$650k to $13k.

Ouch.

Waldron Is Done

2006-01-31T12:34:00.000-08:00

Before anyone gets in a tizzy or reads a press release to the contrary, let me make this clear: Marie Waldron is done. Finished. Might as well save herself the trouble of filing.

First, on the campaign front, her main endorsements are from guys like Hollingsworth, Barry Jantz, and Gary Kendrick. It seems she’s campaigning more it seems for the 77th (ie, East County seat) than the 74th (North County).

Second, she has a lot of bad fiscal votes to account for from her time on the Council. Votes, I'm sure, that Duane Dichiara is just waiting to make her account for.

Third, and out today, she’s got less than $100k of spend-able money in the bank. Compared to Garrick’s $300k+, her ~$80k is looking mighty unimpressive.

Add that up, and right now the good money is on Garrick.

Father of the Recall--Ray Haynes???

2006-01-29T10:10:00.000-08:00

The other night at the California Congress of Republican convention, I heard something that I didn't know about Ray Haynes.

Ray claimed that he was the one that told and convinced Congressman Darrell Issa to write the check to fund the Recall campaign.

Is this true? Maybe Issa staff members can enlighten us.

Orange County Intrigue in SD 34

2006-01-26T11:05:00.000-08:00

Rumors are circulating that Van Tran has been offered a deal by Ackerman: Drop out of the Senate Primary against Lyn Daucher and run for Supervisor with GOP support when Daucher loses to Lou Correa!

That Ackerman would even offer such a deal is testimony to his own self-destructive stubbornness.

The big question now for Tran is, should he take Ackerman up on the offer? With Lou Correa in the race, it appears the Democrats will have a strong candidate. Daucher almost surely loses to Correa and Tran would probably lose as well if Ackerman follows through on his threat to not fund the race if Van wins the nomination.

Of course, Tran will be pressured to stay in the race by supporters of Jim Righeimer, the GOP activist who covets Tran's Assembly seat. But Van needs to ask himself, do these folks really have his best interests in mind, or are they just pimping for Righeimer.

Another part of the intrigue: Are Righeimer's backers trying to force Tran, should he leave his Assembly seat, to abandon fellow up and coming GOP star Janet Nyguen in favor of Righeimer. Van is partially dependent on help from monied conservative forces that are close to Righeimer.

After all this shakes out, will Ackerman and the GOP grassroots make up? Probably not. Ackerman's actions in regards to the 34th, along with his meddling against conservative Supervisor Chris Norby, have marked him as a sell-out in OC conservative circles.

Doyle Out: Bad Day for Gilliard

2006-01-26T00:12:00.000-08:00

With Doyle out, another Gilliard candidate bites the dust.

Assembly Race Rundown

2006-01-25T00:32:00.000-08:00

In just a few days, every campaign is going to have to start disclosing their financials, as of Dec31.

I'm going to provide a birds-eye view of each of them, at least on the Republican side.

I invite any candidate, manager, supporter, or consultant to give me their two cents.

Spin away guys.

5 Reasons to Dump Arnold

2006-01-21T06:14:00.000-08:00

5. Gray Davis would have never entertained the idea of giving clemency to Tookie.

4. Appointing left-wing (not just liberal or democrat) judges that will undermine our criminal justice system.

3. Proposing to raise the minimum wage. Did Arnold say, "Milton Friedman was wrong and Karl Marx was right"?

2. Hiring Viet-cong loving, abortion worshiping, lesbian socialist as his chief-of-staff.

1. Because we are tired of you. Just retire and make your "B" movies.

Meet Arnold's Newest Judge

2006-01-20T20:50:00.000-08:00

Governor Schwarzenegger's latest judicial appointment is an ultra-liberal San Bernardino County criminal defense attorney who specializes in defending child rapists and murderers. Teresa Snodgrass pledged to bring "compassion" to the bench, but for whom?

You can read about her here:
http://www.sbsun.com/news/ci_3419642

Come to think of it, maybe the Governor read Dan Walters fine column last week about how the liberal Democrats were handing the crime issue back to the Republicans this year, and wanted to even things out.

California Club for Growth lives!!!

2006-01-19T22:00:00.000-08:00

OC Blog reports that California Club for Growth has endorsed Van Tran for State Senate. Where have they been? After making a big splash this organization has all but disappeared. Not one word on the Governor's bond and spending plan. Nothing until now. Maybe their officers are busy running for office or running their wife for office.

Ackerman Must Resign

2006-01-19T20:35:00.000-08:00

Hopefully this blog won't disappear, but this has to be said.

Ackerman must resign.

Will Baily at Hack-n-Flak has suggested that Ackerman is in trouble and the buzz I'm hearing is that the caucus is a little concerned about Tricky Dicky's recent activities.

Why?

It is all over OC Blog that Daucher is going to a Planned Parenthood party to celebrate Roe v. Wade.

Everyone in his home county is against him on the Daucher problem.

He was at the Orange County Central Committee meeting, he quickly excused himself after Van Tran virtually received a standing ovation during introductions. I can't remember who left first, but Daucher did the same thing.

Ackerman's wife, Linda was definately irritated that almost everyone at the Central Committee meeting was wearing a "Van Tran for Senate" sticker that she ripped a sticker off of at least one person.

An impression I'm getting is that Dick doesn't like Van because Dick didn't select Van - Van has been "pushed" on him. Now he's having a little temper tantrum because he wants to make a decision for once.

Lynn Daucher is helping unseat the most conservative member of the OC Supervisors by helping the campaign of a Democrat. Dick Ackerman doesn't care because the target is the person who ran against him in his original Assembly Primary.

He's embarassed his caucus. He says Van isn't interested in running pushes Daucher on them then lets them watch Daucher's candidacy implode as the Van Tran train goes marching by.

He's threatened to use caucus money in a primary.

He's threatened to withold cuacus money during the general if his chosen candidate doesn't win.

There's more to list but Psycho Dad is coming on and I have to go.

About the only thing going for him is that he probably won't cry when he loses.

Righeimer In for the 68th

2006-01-16T17:16:00.000-08:00

You heard it here first a week ago when Pete reported that Jim Righeimer was thinking about running in the 68th to replace Van.

Now that Van has announced, it has been reported on FlashReport and on OC Blog that Jim is the de-facto front runner in the race to replace Van Tran.

As Flash reported, Jim Righeimer is a heavy hitter. He's a founding board member of the Family Action PAC, he has millions of dollars, he was part of the Education Alliance helping elect conservative school board members, he'll have the support of county GOP chair Scott Baugh. Should I list more?

Janet Nguyen is a future star in GOP circles, but she should slow down a little and reconsider her campaign. This seat will be open again in six years and in that time she can gain more political experience and build her rolodex to make her a stronger conteneder for this seat. Staying the term now will burn bridges that could be beneficial to her in the future.

CRP abandons Schwarzenegger's Education Agenda

2006-01-14T06:56:00.000-08:00

The Calfornia Republican Party sent an email out urging them to watch John Stossel’s Report on 20/20 dealing with education reform.

After the State of the State, I saw clearly that the Governor, liked junk food bans in schools (he mentioned it twice), his after school program and giving tons of money to schools.

Yet the beginning of the CRP email said

"You won’t want to miss John Stossel’s report tonight on 20/20 that examines how
the American school system robs our country’s children of a better
education. The report details that America’s children are falling behind
because of a lack of school choice and the influence of the powerful education
unions."

I watched the show and it attacked the idea money was the answer, it advocated teacher tenure reform and school choice.

The CRP needs to fire their new communications team. How dare they promote an agenda of choice and tenure reform, instead of the Governor's cave in to the teachers union.

Does anyone think the Governor watched it? You can see more on the show here.

Policy Chairman Issa

2006-01-13T11:41:00.000-08:00

Jason Roe just posted to the FlashReport blog that Congressman Issa is running for Policy Chairman.

This may be “good” for California, but is it good for Republicans. Issa might’ve been the conservative candidate for U.S. Senate and the recall was great but he has hardly been one of the more conservative members of the California delegation (Bilbray is the most recent example) so I don’t know how good this would be for Conservatives.

There has got to be someone better.

McClintock Statement on the Budget

2006-01-10T21:10:00.000-08:00

“Today the Governor released his budget proposal for the 2006-2007 fiscal year.

“It projects general fund spending of $97.9 billion with income of $91.5 billion, for a general fund operating deficit of $6.4 billion. This brings the accumulated three year operating deficit to $9.8 billion.

“This deficit is funded entirely with borrowed funds from Proposition 57, approved by voters in 2004. Although the public was promised that this bond would only be used to pay for past deficits, it is in fact being used to cover deficits for 2004 ($0.6 billion), 2005 ($2.9 billion) and now 2006 ($6.4 billion).

“In November, the Legislative Analyst projected that if nothing were done to rein in spending, the 2006 budget would consume $95.1 billion. The governor proposes spending $2.8 billion above this figure.

“In the last three years, combined population and inflation will have grown 16 percent; revenues 19 percent; spending 25 percent. For the budget year, combined population and inflation will increase 4 percent; revenues 5 percent; spending 9 percent. Revenues continue to outpace inflation and population; spending continues to outpace revenues.

“I have always applied two fundamental tests to a budget: it must be balanced within existing revenues and it must contain a prudent reserve. The proposal as submitted to the legislature fails both tests.”

Imagine - Thomas in Control of Sacramento and Washington

2006-01-10T16:19:00.000-08:00

FlashReport has a post about the possible candidacy of Bill Thomas for House Republican Leader. I can’t even image how bad things would be if Sacramento and Washington were both under the leadership of the Thomas Machine.

Tran’s Baggage Revealed?

2006-01-09T21:33:00.000-08:00

Ok. I’ve now heard from about six separate sources with a revelation of Tran’s baggage.

Apparently, according to Dick Ackerman, Assemblyman Van Tran went to Thialand to try and free a hijacker.

This sounds bizarre, I know. So I asked around and the requisite six people have heard this rumor (all the same way) but the story still didn’t make sense. So I asked around some more to find the real story. This is what I’ve found.

Yes, Van Tran has recently traveled to Thailand. The person he went to help however, is not a hijacker. The person, a man named Ly Tong, is a hero to the local Vietnamese (and Cuban) communities.

A few years ago Ly Tong rented a plane in Thailand and flew to Vietnam where he dropped anit-Communist leaflets over Saigon during Bill Clinton’s visit. The trip to Vietnam was not on his flight plan, so the person he rented the plane from reported it stolen —even though the plane was returned to its place of origin. Therefore, upon his return, Ly Tong was arrested and charged with hijacking.

This is a very sensitive situation, politically, between the Thai and the Vietnamese. The Vietnamese want Ly Tong extradited to Vietnam where he will be give a fake trial and quickly executed. The two countries are somewhat dependent upon each other so Thailand is under extremely intense pressure from the Communists in Vietnam to extradite Ly Tong.

The local Vietnamese community has been lobbying for Ly Tong to be extradited to the United States. Ly Tong is an American Citizen after all and deserves a fair trial. From what I’ve heard, no one is asking that Ly Tong be set free — the extradition is all they want — and I think everyone could agree that would only be fair.

It is worth noting that Young Americans for Freedom (both in California and Florida) has also been involved in this case. Some YAFers I talked to told me they once setup a website to help Ly Tong. The site went down after a year or two (but can still be seen here through archive.org) when the Thai government kept indefinitely postponing any action on the case. But recent actions have shown that Ly Tong is in extreme danger of being sent to Vietnam which is probably the reason for Van Tran’s recent trip.

It is also worth noting that prior to his arrest in Thailand, Ly Tong flew over Havana Cuba and dropped anti-Communist leaflets during the Cuban National Holiday.

The idea that Dick Ackerman would try and use this against Van Tran is laughable. It shows just how out of touch he is with the local community. It is reasons like this that make it clear that Van Tran is the best candidate. This is why the Asian Community, both Democrat and Republican, will turn out in droves to support Van Tran over any other. Van Tran will have an edge over any candidate, Republican or Democrat, especially now that the difference in registration is only 1.5 percent.

Ray: You Were Wrong About Arnold

2006-01-09T09:23:00.000-08:00

I remember it like it was yesterday. It was late September 2003, and I’d heard that Ray Haynes, a longtime field general in the Conservative Movement, was about to endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor. I pulled him aside after a meeting we’d both suffered through and queried him about this seemingly bizarre act. He laid out his arguments that eventually made their way into his infamous “Memo To My Fellow Conservatives,” and told me something not to dissimilar to what made its way into the Memo, that being Arnold is indifferent on the social stuff and with us on the fiscal stuff, he was worthy of our support. And “If I am wrong, I will apologize, and do my political penance.”

Well, Ray, you were wrong, and it is time to apologize, if not also to pay you political penance.

Below you will find this today’s “Monday Morning Memorandum,” a weekly message from Ray that all but says Arnold is not “with us” any longer (if he ever was).

So, I challenge Ray to make next week’s Memo an open letter to conservatives, apologizing for telling us to put our faith in this guy. Ray was one of the guys who held nothing back in lambasting Pete Wilson for being a liberal. Arnold is worse than Wilson ever was, and it is high-time those who supported him say so and apologize for their missteps.

So, I call on Ray to go first, if for no other reason than he gave us his word that he would.

Mirror/Mirror

I am not a trekkie, but I do remember a Star Trek episode in which several members of the crew of the starship Enterprise entered an alternative universe. That universe was the mirror image of the “normal” universe, that is, it was exactly like the normal universe, but everyone in it had the exact opposite character of the people in the normal universe

We have entered that alternative universe in California.

I know that term limits and the recall have substantially diminished the experience in Sacramento, but anyone paying even the smallest attention to history can tell that Gray Davis lost his job because he (1) greatly expanded the government sector of California’s economy, (2) greatly expanded government debt, and (3) greatly expanded government authority over the private sector in the years 1999-2001. Those two years led to the energy crisis of early 2001, the collapse of the private economy (after a five year record growth) in 2001 and 2002, and the fiscal crises that led to the recall of Governor Davis. Governor Schwarzenegger got elected campaigning against these expansions, and promising to “clean house” in Sacramento.

In the alternative universe, as seen on the “Mirror/Mirror” episode in Star Trek, Schwarzenegger would be expanding government, expanding government debt and intruding on the private sector. And, indeed, he is.

Let’s look back in California history. In the late 1980’s, Governor Deukmejian, in order to get prison and freeway funding, gave away some very serious concessions to the leftists, vastly expanding state spending and increasing worker’s compensation benefits. In 1991, to accomplish his agenda, Pete Wilson was forced to increased taxes. The ensuing collapse in California’s economy was precipitous. From the Great Depression to 1992, California’s general fund revenue went up every single year. In the 1992-93 fiscal year, for the first time in modern history, California’s general fund revenue dropped in real terms, from $42.1 billion to $40.9 billion.

The state then repealed the upper income tax rate, cut other taxes, reformed worker’s compensation, reduced regulations, and the economy and state general fund revenue exploded, from $40.1 billion in 1993-4 to $79 billion in 2000-01. In 2000 and 2001, the state increased fees and regulations, increased workers’ compensation benefits, substantially increased the size of government, increased the minimum wage, increased environmental and workplace regulation, and did everything it could to interfere with the private economy. As a result, in the 2001-02 budget year, once again, general fund revenue dropped substantially, from $79 billion to $66 billion, leading to the largest budget crisis in the history of the state. Two years later, Gray Davis lost his job.

Now Governor Schwarzenegger, in light of his recent loss at the polls, and his sagging popularity, thinks that he needs to do something different in his job, so he has chosen to increase government debt and government regulation on business. He has already demonstrated a penchant for increasing environmental regulations. An increase in work place regulations, like the minimum wage, and an increase in government debt, is the next step down the road to economic collapse—again.

Governor Schwarzenegger looks back to Pat Brown as the builder of the California dream. Except Pat Brown did his building with little borrowed money, and Ronald Reagan defeated Brown because Brown was a big spender. I am concerned that now that we have entered into this alternative universe, some Democrat is going to assume the Ronald Reagan role, move to the right of Schwarzenegger on spending issues, and carry a broom to sweep him out of office.

In Star Trek, Kirk returned to the Enterprise when Spock was able to reverse the glitch in the transporter that sent Kirk and some of his crew to the alternative universe. Our problem isn’t caused by a transporter glitch. How are we going to get out of this universe?

Righeimer for Assembly!

2006-01-09T02:18:00.000-08:00

With all the brouhaha last week about the drama in SD34, there is another aspect of the race that certainly will get the rumor mill – at least behind the Orange Curtain – going.

That is, if Van is the nominee, who replaces Van?

As of this writing, the conventional wisdom is that Freshman Garden Grove Councilwoman Janet Nguyen would step into Van’s seat. She is young, ambitious, and as a boost to her for this seat, she is Vietnamese.

However, I’d like to throw out another name – Jim Righeimer. Jim, as many know, is a conservative OC-insider, a former co-author of Prop 226 (the original Paycheck Protection Initiative), and a Board Member of the Family Action PAC. Jim’s legacy includes having lost to Tom Harman for Assembly in the Open Primary era, whereby Jim drew considerably more Republican votes, but because of his attractiveness to Democrats, Harman squeezed out a narrow victory.

Now, 6 years later, Jim has made a good living for himself, and could be itching for another shot at the Assembly.

From where I sit, it would be a welcome addition to the Assembly GOP Caucus.

So, I say, let’s draft Righeimer for Assembly!

Quote of the month

2006-01-08T17:56:00.000-08:00

"Today it is more politically correct to bash Abramoff and anyone he stood in line with at the grocery store let along gave a contribution to, than to give a college scholarship to a one-legged, lesbian illegal alien." - FR Blogger and pollster extraordinaire, Adam Probolsky

GOP Hypocrites on State of the State

2006-01-07T11:20:00.000-08:00

A glance of at some of the responses to the Governor's State of the State reveal all we have to know about GOP Lawmakers.

Assemblyman Tom Harman:

"I support Schwarzenegger's efforts to move California forward"

Assemblyman Todd Spitzer:

" We must continue to advocate for fiscal responsibility, improving the economic
climate for businesses and improving our education system. The governor appears
committed to these goals."

Assemblyman Mike Villines:

"Governor Schwarzenegger laid out a bold plain to rebuild our state."

Senator Jim Battin:

"... I am excited about working with him to eliminate wasteful government
spending and increase protections for our families."

They and most of the others that spouted this stuff have to be kidding. $222 billion in spending, $70 billion in G.O. Bonds, minimum wage increase, fees (tax) increases on everyone.

If a Democratic Governor had proposed this they would not be saying the same things and everyone knows it. Time to stand on principle gentlemen. You reveal yourselves for the hypocrites you've become (or were already).

Is Jim Brulte the Biggest Hypocrite in CA?

2006-01-07T01:08:00.000-08:00

For years, Republicans have talked of reaching out to build support among women and minorities. Now, state Senator Jim Brulte is putting his money where his party's mouth is--and jaws are dropping. Brulte, one of California's savviest GOP strategists, has announced a sort of ad hoc affirmative action plan: Henceforth, he said, he will contribute in party primaries only to women and minority candidates. "I think our message, by and large is all right. But if we're ever going to be the majority party and govern in California, we need a more diverse group of messengers," said the Rancho Cucamonga lawmaker. -LA Times

Jim Brulte received undue credit for the 1994 Republican takeover of the State Assembly. You have to keep in mind that 1994 had a huge national Republican trend that had more to do with the anti Bill Clinton mood and Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” than anything Brulte burped up.

Is Brulte a political genius? Hardly. He was a key figure that worked out the “incumbent protection” redistricting measure where he locked in for 10 years Democrat control over the State Assembly and State Senate. And why? Because he wanted a plane ride on Air Force One. Additionally, his lack of leadership in the recall movement was deafening.

This year, Brulte is doing everything he can to keep an image of the Republican Party as the Party of “Old White Guys” or “the Rich.”

Look at Brulte’s record of endorsements:

U.S. Senate Race:
Bill Jones over Rosario Marin (Hispanic)

State Controller
Tony Strickland over Abel Maldonado (Hispanic)

Attorney General
Chuck Poochigian over Pierre Prosper (Black)

Insurance Commissioner
Steve Poizner over Gary Mendoza (Hispanic)

Board of Equalization 3rd District
Ray Haynes over Michelle Steel (Asian/Woman)

Congressional District 48
John Campbell over Marilyn Brewer (Woman)

State Senate 34th District
Lynn Daucher (Rich) over Van Tran (Asian)

On behalf of all California Republicans, I would like to thank Jimmy Brulte. If for nothing else, for teaching us that Gastric bypass surgery (stomach stapling) works.

Lew Uhler on the State of the State

2006-01-06T11:00:00.000-08:00

“Devil in the Details”
TAXPAYERS SHOULD DEMAND BOND SPENDING SAFEGUARDS
FROM THE LEGISLATURE

“As always, in a major new spending measure of the kind the Governor is proposing, the ‘devil is in the details.’ Taxpayers would be well advised to await the details and demand accountability and assurances before making a final judgment. The Governor has proposed; let’s see if the Legislature is willing to ‘dispose’ in a way taxpayers can endorse,” said Lewis K. Uhler, President of the National Tax Limitation Committee.

Uhler continued, “California’s infrastructure, especially our roads and highways, are in desperate need of expansion and repair. There is no debate about that. It is how we pay for it that is at issue.

“General obligation bonds are an appropriate funding source if the proceeds are actually used for construction of ‘hard assets’ that have a useful life longer than the pay-off period of the bonds (like the mortgage on a home).

But $68 billion of new debt, even over 10 years, is huge and should not be undertaken unless taxpayers of California are given some firm assurances regarding fiscal discipline, efficiency and accountability with respect to bond debt and the use of the bond proceeds. These assurances requiring legislative action should include:

· A constitutional limit on future debt service as a percentage of general fund revenues so as to protect California’s bond rating (the Governor’s 6% appears reasonable);

· Getting a bigger bang for our highway buck by reducing the role of extraordinarily inefficient CalTrans in favor of local transportation agencies, public/private partnerships and creative new solutions, such as using the airspace above existing freeways for automated, high-speed automobile corridors;

· Reducing the cost of all public works, including schools, water projects, roads, etc., by waiving/repealing “Little Davis-Bacon” which requires paying the highest, rather than competitive, wages;

· Uniquely local projects should be paid for by local bonds, and those improvements susceptible to user fees, such as bridges, where the beneficiaries are easily defined should be constructed from the proceeds of revenue bonds paid through tolls;

· Streamline environmental requirements so that infrastructure can be improved/built quickly and precious bond funds are not dissipated on “mitigation measures.”

Ackerman’s Tangled Web: Tran/Daucher/Norby/Espinoza

2006-01-06T09:48:00.000-08:00

There are two people Dick Ackerman hates in Orange County. Chris Norby and Van Tran.Why?

Chris Norby is obvious. The two Fullerton City Council colleagues ran against each other in the Primary for State Assembly in the early ’90s. Ackerman won and has held a grudge ever since; Norby remained on the City Council and was eventually elected to the Orange County Board of Supervisors where he is the only conservative – his colleagues are Democrat Lou Correa and three Lynn Daucher clones.

Van Tran is not so obvious. Speculation abounds, but no one can explain why Dick hates him so.

But the web is even more tangled.

Dick Ackerman has been recruiting Lynn Daucher to run for something – anything it seems – for a while. Prior to bringing her into the State Senate race, he was trying to recruit her to run against Chris Norby. (Norby is targeted by the unions because he opposed a pension increase that will potentially lead Orange County down the bankruptcy path – again).

Now that Daucher is out of the supervisorial picture, Norby’s opponent is La Habra Councilwoman Rose Espinoza.

Rose is a popular Democrat in the city. She started a charity called Rosie’s Garage – in her garage – and finally won election after two unsuccessful attempts. Her momentum has continued to increase and if John Moorlach continues to be unopposed in his bid for Supervisor, Norby could face the full front of a union attack through Espinoza.

The relation of all this to Dick Ackerman: Rose Espinoza was Lynn Daucher’s Woman of the Year. Lynn Daucher clearly supports Democrats – Democrats trying to unseat the only voice of reason on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

In supporting Daucher, Ackerman surely knew he was supporting the Democrat trying to unseat in an incumbent Republican Supervisor. But why should he care? If, Espinoza is successful, he will have settled a decade’s old grudge against Chris Norby.

The crazy question is: Does Dick Ackerman have a real beef with Van Tran or is opposing Van Tran simply a means to an end in his feud with Chris Norby.

Declaration of War by Cal-YAF

2006-01-05T23:16:00.000-08:00

I heard Cal-YAF was going to start a special project called “Conservatives Against Daucher,” which is going to be a special project that will go on even after the Primary if Daucher makes it that far or even if Van decides not to seek the seat.

Kind of spoils the Country Club Republican plan to foist someone for the seat.

I always liked Cal-YAF's "you are with us or against us" mentality.

Joe Giardiello Gives 6 for 2006

2006-01-05T22:47:00.000-08:00

1) Duh. Tom McClintock wins statewide office in 06. He is immediately considered a dark horse Vice Presidential candidate for 08.

2) In a move which ends talk of a Vice Presidential nomination, Lt. Governor Tom McClintock closes the Fresno and Los Angeles offices and re-opens one in a penthouse suite at the Mandalay Bay and another beside a trout stream in Colorado. His District Director is never heard from again.

3) Even though Steve Westly has the most Lesbian, Gay, Bi-Sexual, Transgender endorsements (at least according to his website), Angelides wins the Democratic nomination for governor. Unions run this state; why should that change now?

4) Antonio Villaraigosa ends 2006 one of the most popular Mayors in Los Angeles history. He will be the next United States Senator from California.

5) Thanks to the brilliant leadership role of Cal-YAF, Van Tran wins the 34th Senate District.

6) Michelle Steel, clearly the only lucid candidate for the 3rd District BOE, wins easily.

SD 34 Update

2006-01-05T20:00:00.000-08:00

The 34th Senate district sits smack dab in the middle of Orange County, but it has been represented by Democrat Joe Dunn for almost eight years. Over the last two years OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh has done a great job of directing party resources into the 34th, to up registration and build a Republican infrastructure. The seat is up for grabs this year.

But many Orange County Republicans (and one key OC Register Editorial writer) are up in arms over the heavy-handed attempts by Senator Dick Ackerman to force Lynn Daucher on them. Daucher is a liberal Republican who represents a very different north Orange County seat (72) in the Assembly and has little in common with the folk in the 34th. The candidate who represents a large portion of the 34th, and who has a solid political structure already in place, in Assemblyman Van Tran.

Ackerman, who, to put it mildly, has never liked Van Tran, has convinced Daucher to move into the central county 34th district and promised her the world if she does it. He also promised her united OC Republican support - which he cannot deliver. For instance, today Ackerman's office released a list of 11 Senators supposedly supporting Daucher. The only name on the list from an Orange County seat, Sen. Bill Morrow, promptly contradicted Ackerman and said he most definately was not supporting Daucher.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is Tran's highest profile endorsement, but look for that to change in the next few days as another OC Congressman decides to stand up to Ackerman and support Van Tran.

Ackerman has said he will not fund the race if Tran wins the primary. All this GOP in-fighting is music to the Democrat's ears. Right now, there is only real candidate, a very weak Tom Umburg. But Lou Correa is looking at the seat.