Potential GOP Revolt Against Arnold's Bond Measures?

Prop 1B – $19.9 billion traffic bond

All voters – 54 Yes – 27 No – 19 Undecided
Among GOP - 39 Yes – 38 NO – 20 Undecided

Prop 1C - $2.8 billion housing bond

All voters - 33 Yes- 42 No- 25 Undecided
Among GOP - 17 Yes-- 56 No-- 27 Undecided

Prop 1D - $10.4 billion school facilities

All voters – 48 Yes-- 37 No-- 15 Undecided
GOP – 31 Yes-- 50 No-- 19 Undecided

Prop 1E - $4.1 billion flood protection/emergency preparedness

All voters – 47 Yes-- 33 No-- 20 Undecided
GOP – 35 Yes-- 42 No-- 23 Undecided

Told Ya!

"'So what I've said to Phil, and he's good with that, is that after this is over, of course I'm going to be with the Democrat,' Villaraigosa said Thursday."

Odd. Sounds a lot like what this blog said would happen.

FIELD'S FIELD

Like most of you, I started my day by downloading the pdf of the Field Poll and giving it a look over breakfast.

My basic question is: do any of its findings merit repeating?

How does a turnout model where the Republican gets 33% in LA County and 34% in the Bay Area, adding up to an 8-point Republican lead make any sense?

My answer: it doesn’t.

I’d have to guess that this is heavily over-sampled in the remaining parts of Southern California (ie, OC, Inland Empire) and the Central Valley.

Sure, ask 992 registered voters at the Harvest Crusade who they’re supporting, and ya, I’d imagine Arnold does pretty well. Ask 992 registered voters at a Save the Whales rally, and well, probably not so well.

A wise man once told me that a poll is only as good as its sample.

This Field Poll doesn’t seem to be very good.

Remember that when the next one trickles out and shows guys like McClintock and Strickland (still) up. Granted, I think they might actually be, but this won’t be valid validation. At least not in my book.

Republicans Agree: Daucher Can't Win?

So what’s it mean when you’re trying to campaign for a tough seat, yet even those in your own Party are angling against you?

The last time I ventured down behind the Orange Curtain, I was asked by several people who I thought would win for Supervisor.

“Bates probably,” I replied, “though Cassie is spending a fortune to prove me wrong.”

Getting an unsatisfied look in return, I realized each meant the OTHER Supervisor race, the one people are campaigning, but not really campaigning for.

It must infuriate Lynn Daucher, but the sharks are already circling, even from within her own Party, to replace… her opponent on the OC Board of Supes.

Councilmembers Janet Nguyen and Carlos Bustamante are both looking to be THE GOP candidate to take back this seat currently held by Daucher opponent Lou Correa. The trouble is, for the seat to be open, Daucher must lose.

Oops. So goes the argument that people believe Daucher can win.

Stop Fooling Ourselves: Antonio's a Dem

Are California Republicans just trying to fool themselves?

You might think that, but I couldn’t possibly comment. Or could I?

Many normally astute observers of California politics on the right side of the aisle have been falling all over themselves lately trying to make sense of Arnold’s appointment of Mayor Villiaraigosa’s sister to the bench, Arnold’s support for the Mayor’s school take over plan, and the Mayor’s to-date lack of an endorsement for Phil Angelides.

These otherwise wise pundits have concluded that because the Mayor has yet to endorse, that he won’t. The reasoning goes that Antonio wants his school plan passed and signed, and isn’t exactly secret about his wishes for Phil to lose, giving Antonio no incumbent in his way when he runs for Governor in 2010. Fair enough.

But that still strikes me as wishful thinking, at best.

Antonio is as savvy as they come. He knows he would be making his Primary bid for the Gov’s office immeasurably more difficult by sitting out this race, especially as the big city Mayor from SoCal may be taking on a NorCal counterpart.

So, what then to make of the Mayor’s current refusal to endorse?

Well, how about using it as a stick to get his reform plan passed through a skeptical state legislature?

It took a fairly massive overhaul of the plan itself, and several days of personal lobbying for the former Speaker of the joint to even get the tepid support he currently has. And that’s with the top two folks on the Assembly side, as well as the Senator Majority Leader already in the bag.

He has his carrots, what he needs are sticks. And what better one than for the most popular Latino in this largely Latino state to sit on his hands while Phil flounders?

Antonio will come around to support Phil. It takes, what, two days top to script and shoot a couple of spots? Absentees are still many months out, even further out than September’s flurry of bill signings. Antonio will be there for his guy, no question.

So, Republicans, let’s not fool ourselves into thinking such things, ok?

26%

According to yesterday's San Jose State poll, 26% of conservatives (18% of all Republicans) disapprove of the Governor.

GARRY SOUTH SPEAKS

This, from the ever-insightful New West News Blog:

I am perplexed by the Angelides general-election campaign. All through the primary until this very day, he has yet to air an ad that could be considered a proper introductory or bio spot, telling voters something about his background, his personal story, and why he is qualified to be governor. All we know after tens of millions spent on advertising is that a) he has three daughters, b) he has a lot of endorsements from politicians and interest groups, and c) Westly and Schwarzenegger are schmucks (twins?!). It’s a basic rule of thumb that you have to tell voters something of your candidate’s life story and his qualifications for the job he is seeking before they care much what his positions on the issues are — particularly with a candidate who is not well known. Angelides has so far not put a single spot on the air that mentioned anything about his family background (grandson of immigrants who didn’t speak English, father worked hard to send him to Harvard, etc.). Nor, for that matter, has he aired a single ad that told people what he has done during eight years as treasurer, and why that qualifies him to be governor (even the ill-fated Kathleen Brown in ‘94 discussed her record as treasurer in her spots). It’s like the Man Who Fell from the Sky — yesterday. If the Angelides campaign thinks their hate of Shwarzenegger and Bush is sufficient to beat an incumbent (and a movie-star incumbent governor at that) they should check back with the Dean and Kerry campaigns. The Republicans hated Davis in ‘02, too, and couldn’t fathom how anybody could possibly vote for him. As I recall, he was re-elected anyway with a 39% job-approval rating. Free advice, Phil –take it or leave it.

What's Been Going On

Sorry for the delay. Even as much of a junkie as I has to take a break from time to time.

So let’s get caught up.

GOVERNOR: Der Arnold and Phil have been trying to “out backwards” each other, running ads with vastly different sized buys claiming each are trying to take the state back to the stone age.

Arnold’s ads seem to be working, though we’re still very early and Phil (and his union buddies) have yet to engage.

We’ll see what happens.

GOVERNOR 2: Arnold seems wholly uninterested in being a Republican. With his primary campaign issues being the environment and massive spending increases, voters could easily confuse Arnold with just about any of the Democrats in Sacramento.

Why the Republicans are still going along? Who knows…

CONTROLLER: The CRP sent out a release announcing a poll by the ever-respected Public Opinion Strategies showing Tony being up on Chiang by 8 among likely voters.

My question is: HOW?

I don’t buy that Tony has enough name id to warrant that, after all, he struggled to beat Maldonado.

And I don’t buy that voters are just that naturally inclined to put a Republican in this seat, as McClintock fell short 4 years ago to capture it.

First, we have to ask how the poll was conducted – despite someone like Kinney having conducted it. Did they just use Ballot Designations? Did they include Party ID?

But as this campaign plays out, no doubt Chiang will have more money to fund the race, but as he’s one of the naïve politicians who refuses to go negative, Strickland may have a chance to tell voters of the sure-to-exist hundreds of examples of Chiang siding against taxpayers as a member of the BOE. Question is, can Tony find the money to get that message out…

JESSICA’S LAW: CRP also did polling showing it WAY up. Despite asking both POS and Mike Vallante at the CRP for any toplines or anything, nothing has come our way to report on the particulars of the survey.

CRP POLLING: So they released results for Controller and JLaw. Does that mean the others are struggling? Why release JUST THOSE TWO results???

Is McClintock down? How bad do they have Pooch? What about Eminent Domain? Parental Notification?

AG: Chuck’s ad is fantastic and no doubt just the start of things to come. With $3 million, and no shortage of things to hit Moonbeam on, its good to see Khachigian and Co reminding voters just who Jerry is, before Jerry can paint Pooch as a troglodyte.

I just wonder what more they have in store.