Assembly GOP Leadership Battle

Tom Del Beccaro has it that McCarthy will soon be stepping down to undertake a Congressional race (more sure to come on that later), and that Plescia, Keene, and Walters are all vying to replace him.

Anything anyone hears, we'll be trying our best to stay atop this.

As Drudge would say, DEVELOPING...

The Battle Begins

Tony Strickland last night released a call for Governor Schwarzenegger to take action against Meathead’s use of taxpayer funds to pump his First5 Initiative.

It’s about time.

Without primaries for Gov, LG, really AG, Treasurer being a bore, as well as IC, the Controller’s primary is all we really have.

To this point, it’s been cat and mouse.

I’m glad one of the sides is finally making some move, any move.

You can see the pdf of Tony’s release here.

Kurzner Sees The Writing On The Wall

Rumors abound that good guy (but political lightweight) Phil Kurzner has pulled out of the race for Insurance Commissioner, saving billionaire candidate Steve Poizner from having to expend the resources to crush him in the Primaries, leaving him more to do battle with Bustamante come November.

Analysis: Only move for Phil. Save face, try to broker a deal. Great news for Poizner, who gets to save up for Cruz.

McClintock's chance to control the party

Let's face it, even if Schwarzenegger wins re-election, the real power in the party is now going to be Tom McClintock. Still retaining the loyalty of the CRA types to get them to pull back a bit on their Arnold bashing, he is actually being openly courted by Schwarzenegger's donors. No Republican has enjoyed such support in California since Reagan (after his first election - the moderates hated him at first but they "grew"). His run for LG is really just the first step in a race for governor in 2010.

So now what does McClintock do? First he has to grab hold of the party apparatus. He does that by supporting good conservatives for party posts who also know how to win elections. He has the standing in the party to get pretty much whatever he asks for and his support for the governor should be contingent on Schwarzenegger accepting McClintock picks for party posts (including helping Dufus from making an early exit.). This is what the CRA should be working on to actually get things done and change the party for the better. Let's hope McClintock is working behind the scenes to do just that.

Stop Phil-lary!

Phil Kurzner, Joel Strom, and the RMR Cast have been trying to walk a very fine line in the good doctor’s long-shot bid for the Republican nomination for Insurance Commish, trying both to portray him as the carrier of the conservative flag, but at the same time, pro-choice enough to appeal to folks like failed US Senate candidate Toni Casey.

It’s because of the first half of that balancing act that I don’t understand how this article was ever put out. “Phillary” openly, proudly, and I guess boldly calls for tax raises to pay for Hillary-style health insurance…

Getting to the right of someone by calling for tax increases… that’s a new one for me!

I’m quite grateful to that the article has been broadly published in time for the upcoming CRP Convention, so that conservative groups don’t make the foolish mistake of buying into Kurzner’s propaganda that he is an actual conservative.

McCarthy Fuels Bill Thomas Rumor

The rumor that Congressman Bill Thomas is NOT going to file for reelection is getting some confirmation. Kevin McCarthy has told more than one person around the Capitol that he is making tentative plans for what he hopes will be an easy Primary contest.

It has long been rumored that Thomas, who is term-limited out of his Chairmanship, would step down this year to help ease the way for McCarthy. The Thomas people (of which McCarthy is one) believe that Sen. Roy Ashburn, who does not have a free ride, will not risk his safe Senate seat, thus leaving Kevin with only minor Primary opposition.

McCarthy has gone so far as telling some members of the Assembly that he would like to stay on as leader even if he is running for Congress. It is doubtful the Assembly GOP Caucus would go for such an arrangement. But with a talent poll about 3 inches deep, the Caucus only has two or three legitimate contenders.

Something Smells in SD 34

Jim Righeimer and some of his closest friends were the loudest and most aggressive supporters of Van Tran's announcement for the State Senate.

Could it be that the real motive of certain conservatives promising Van financial support in his race against Daucher was to create an open seat so that Jim Righeimer could have a seat to run for?

And could it be that some of those same friends of Righeimer are trying to cut a deal with Dick Ackerman and some of the key GOP donors --- a deal that will leave Van hanging out there without the expected support, in exchange for donors NOT helping Righeimer's opponent, Janet Nyguen?

Don't be shocked if the much talked about campaign to take down Lyn Daucher never materializes, as Van Tran is sacrificed after giving up his seat for the conservative cause.

On the Cusp

This week’s CalPeek has a bit on Meathead’s “Preschool for All” initiative, and the PPIC poll that found it starting off 63% YES, 35% NO, and 2% undecided.

Calpeek also quotes opponents of the measure saying, “Given the language tested by PPIC, we’re surprised the numbers weren’t even higher. The language they used was like testing whether people would like free ice cream on their free piece of apple pie.”

For the record, the question asked was, “How about increasing taxes by 1.7 percent on individual incomes above $400,000 dollars annually, and $800,000 for couples, to pay for voluntary public preschool for all 4-year old children?”

Among Demos it polls 77-20, among Reeps its 49-49, and 66-32 among Independents.

You can find the entire survey here.

Calpeek paraphrases opponents’ claims that when read the actual initiative language, Meethead has “a tough time getting to a simple majority.”

63% provides a fascinating figure in that it is right on the cusp between pass/no-pass for tax-increase initiatives according to pollster Bob Moore’s “Rule of Thumb,” which says that normal initiatives must start at at least 55% to stand a chance of passage, while initiatives that increase taxes have the bar set a little higher at 65%.

We'll be watching to see as more public surveys are released.

50th Congressional District

Even as candidates come and go in the 50th CD special election, the race is starting to take definite shape. By most accounts, there are 5 major candidates at this time. In no particular order, Howard Kaloogian, Alan Uke, Richard Earnest, Bill Morrow, and Brian Bilbray.

Here is one person's opinion on how the race is shaping up.

Kaloogian is the conservative with the most money. He has the vast majority of movement conservative endorsements and has the ability to raise a decent amount of cash. He should be the favorite in the race based on the ideological breakdown of the candidates except for one thing - Bill Morrow. Most of my fellow conservative activists would prefer Bill Morrow as our candidate. But there have been doubts from the beginning as to whether he could raise the money to be competitive. But now it looks like he has been able to raise enough at least to be competitive - with Kaloogian. There will probably be a split in the conservative vote which can only help the others in race.

Alan Uke took off out of the gate faster than anyone. He is reportedly going to spend $2 million of his own money on the race. Uke has an impeccable business and community involvement background (most recently bringing USS Midway to San Diego as a museum). And he certainly is willing to give it all he has, financially and otherwise, to win. Not to mention he has Jim Nygren, probably the best GOP consultant in the state working for him.

Uke has the reputation as somewhat of a moderate, but insiders I talk to say with the exception of the abortion issue, he's as conservative as they come. Until a few weeks ago, another big money moderate, Ken King, claimed he was in the race and willing to spend a few million also. His abrupt departure was a tremendous boost to Uke and at this point makes him the frontrunner.

Richard Earnest is a former high tech CEO, mostly untainted by the tech bust of years past. But he is an unknown outside of his tiny city of Del Mar (where he was mayor) and has a most un-Republican love of taxes. It doesn't appear he is willing to spend the money to be competitive with Uke.

Which brings us to former Congressman Brian Bilbray. I admit to having a soft spot for Bilbray. He's aggressively anti-illegal immigration and says what he feels - even if it sometimes does get him into trouble. Against better political judgment, he voted to impeach Bill Clinton which probably lost him reelection in 2000. But he also has a troubling history of flip-flopping on major issues (guns being the biggest) when it was politically convenient. He certainly carries the most baggage of any candidate in the race.

There is talk of V. Eric Roach, a pioneer in the online trading industry, deciding to make a serious run. If that happens the dynamics of the race can radically change overnight. But for now, advantage Uke.

What Is Phil Paule Thinking?

A few weeks ago, Phil Paule posted on the Flashreport, that in his esteemed opinion, Ray Haynes stood as the front runner in the race for BOE 3.

He based this on a few things:
1)Haynes’ longstanding reputation in Riverside County, a good chunk of the district,
2)Haynes’ history of writing op-eds in the OC Register and the SDUT,
and 3)What Phil calls “The Brulte factor,” that being Big Jimmy’s ability to turn on the cash spigots at a moment’s notice.

Despite those things, and as much as I personally like Ray, I just don’t see how in the wide world that can happen.

Michelle’s $415k in the bank just plain dwarfs Ray’s $77k, and even by Phil’s own admission, Michelle has the ability to self-fund – a resource she’s yet to really tap.

$77k isn’t enough to get your message out in an Assembly seat, let alone an area 20x the size of an Assembly seat!

Michelle has the slates and the cash. I don’t see how she loses.

Inside the Dome

Van Tran blast-emailed/faxed everyone touting his endorsement from conservative icon leader Tom McClintock the other day. Not a big shock, as Van is night and day more conservative than Daucher.

What hasn’t made news is the fact that after doing so, Tom received a visit from a visibly unhappy Dick Ackerman, who lived up to his first name by lambasting Tom, accusing him of not being a team player, and all the rest.

Safe to say, Tom was displeased by this, and reports have Senator McClintock giving Ackerman a piece of his mind.

Good for you Tom!

For whom the bell tolls

And before I forget Strickland's anemic response. I'm not kidding, this was the headline of the Strickland release in response to Maldonado's brilliant PR coup.

Maldonado Finance Report As Inconsistent as His Voting Record
Strickland and Maldonado are close in fundraising after pealing away Maldonado report gimmickry

Inconsistent? Strickland calling someone else inconsistent? At least Abel admits he's a liberal and votes that way. What is Strickland's excuse? Maybe he needs to be reminded of this.

And as a side note, the typo in the subhead is nice. Someone should tell him that "peal" means the ringing of bells. Just like the one that tolls for thee, Mr. Strickland.

Best line of the campaign season so far

Comes from Jim Nygren in a press release for state Senator Abel Maldonado belittling the fundraising prowess of ex-Assemblyman Tony Strickland:

"Strickland's war chest is more like a toy chest," said Jim Nygren, Maldonado's campaign consultant. "Tony is living on borrowed time and borrowed money. When the bills come due he won't have the funds to turn the lights on, let alone mount a competitive campaign."

Particularly noteworthy is the number of loans Strickland has received (61% of his total), especially those from his mother-in-law and his wife's employees. Something seems to stink over at Team Strickland.