Correction: Adams Still Has This Race Won

I hate to disagree with the venerable Mr Regan, but in this instance, I must.

Adams has this thing locked up.

Unlike Lancaster, who put his money clearly just to show a higher reporting figure, Adams started his race off with his “loan” and has shown clearly a willingness to spend what he put in. The “loan” by Adams seems more a way to recoup the money, should he win.

Additionally, Lancaster has baggage galore.

And lastly, look at those contributions: most of Brulte and Postmus’ guys have yet to weigh in. Not to mention Adams’ position as most likely to get IE support.

Again, I hate to disagree with Mr Regan, as doing so is usually at my own peril, but in this case, I think he’s wrong.

Don't call him Assemblyman Adams - At least not yet.

Conventional wisdom of late is that the 59th Assembly District has been locked up by Anthony Adams, the former Bill Postmus staffer who has been running for the seat for over a year.

But Adams extremely weak campaign report may change some people's minds and prompt others to consider entering the race, even at this late date.

Adams showed only $108,000 cash on hand, with $63,000 in outstanding debts. Adams, a law student, in not personally weathly and is unable to contribute to his own cause.

Bottom line - the 59th is not a done deal. At least not yet.

Bustamante's Pathetic Disclosure

Any financial facts and figures at this early a date obviously have to be taken with a grain, or a handful of salt. Candidates will continue to raise money, and so the March or May disclosures will tell much more than the disclosures out today will.

But, if we waited for those, we’d all be bored for the next two months, so lets talk about these anyways.

I’ve perused, skimmed, or examined every Reep candidates’ disclosures today, as well as the Dem ones for competitive Generals.

Most striking, out of all the pdfs I’ve been pouring over, was Cruz Bustamante’s.

I’m sure, or rather, I assume he can turn on the spigots at any moment, but at the moment, Poizner is beating him ~$650k to $13k.

Ouch.

Waldron Is Done

Before anyone gets in a tizzy or reads a press release to the contrary, let me make this clear: Marie Waldron is done. Finished. Might as well save herself the trouble of filing.

First, on the campaign front, her main endorsements are from guys like Hollingsworth, Barry Jantz, and Gary Kendrick. It seems she’s campaigning more it seems for the 77th (ie, East County seat) than the 74th (North County).

Second, she has a lot of bad fiscal votes to account for from her time on the Council. Votes, I'm sure, that Duane Dichiara is just waiting to make her account for.

Third, and out today, she’s got less than $100k of spend-able money in the bank. Compared to Garrick’s $300k+, her ~$80k is looking mighty unimpressive.

Add that up, and right now the good money is on Garrick.

Father of the Recall--Ray Haynes???

The other night at the California Congress of Republican convention, I heard something that I didn't know about Ray Haynes.

Ray claimed that he was the one that told and convinced Congressman Darrell Issa to write the check to fund the Recall campaign.

Is this true? Maybe Issa staff members can enlighten us.

Orange County Intrigue in SD 34

Rumors are circulating that Van Tran has been offered a deal by Ackerman: Drop out of the Senate Primary against Lyn Daucher and run for Supervisor with GOP support when Daucher loses to Lou Correa!

That Ackerman would even offer such a deal is testimony to his own self-destructive stubbornness.

The big question now for Tran is, should he take Ackerman up on the offer? With Lou Correa in the race, it appears the Democrats will have a strong candidate. Daucher almost surely loses to Correa and Tran would probably lose as well if Ackerman follows through on his threat to not fund the race if Van wins the nomination.

Of course, Tran will be pressured to stay in the race by supporters of Jim Righeimer, the GOP activist who covets Tran's Assembly seat. But Van needs to ask himself, do these folks really have his best interests in mind, or are they just pimping for Righeimer.

Another part of the intrigue: Are Righeimer's backers trying to force Tran, should he leave his Assembly seat, to abandon fellow up and coming GOP star Janet Nyguen in favor of Righeimer. Van is partially dependent on help from monied conservative forces that are close to Righeimer.

After all this shakes out, will Ackerman and the GOP grassroots make up? Probably not. Ackerman's actions in regards to the 34th, along with his meddling against conservative Supervisor Chris Norby, have marked him as a sell-out in OC conservative circles.

Doyle Out: Bad Day for Gilliard

With Doyle out, another Gilliard candidate bites the dust.

Assembly Race Rundown

In just a few days, every campaign is going to have to start disclosing their financials, as of Dec31.

I'm going to provide a birds-eye view of each of them, at least on the Republican side.

I invite any candidate, manager, supporter, or consultant to give me their two cents.

Spin away guys.

5 Reasons to Dump Arnold

5. Gray Davis would have never entertained the idea of giving clemency to Tookie.

4. Appointing left-wing (not just liberal or democrat) judges that will undermine our criminal justice system.

3. Proposing to raise the minimum wage. Did Arnold say, "Milton Friedman was wrong and Karl Marx was right"?

2. Hiring Viet-cong loving, abortion worshiping, lesbian socialist as his chief-of-staff.

1. Because we are tired of you. Just retire and make your "B" movies.

Meet Arnold's Newest Judge

Governor Schwarzenegger's latest judicial appointment is an ultra-liberal San Bernardino County criminal defense attorney who specializes in defending child rapists and murderers. Teresa Snodgrass pledged to bring "compassion" to the bench, but for whom?

You can read about her here:
http://www.sbsun.com/news/ci_3419642

Come to think of it, maybe the Governor read Dan Walters fine column last week about how the liberal Democrats were handing the crime issue back to the Republicans this year, and wanted to even things out.

California Club for Growth lives!!!

OC Blog reports that California Club for Growth has endorsed Van Tran for State Senate. Where have they been? After making a big splash this organization has all but disappeared. Not one word on the Governor's bond and spending plan. Nothing until now. Maybe their officers are busy running for office or running their wife for office.

Ackerman Must Resign

Hopefully this blog won't disappear, but this has to be said.

Ackerman must resign.


Will Baily at Hack-n-Flak has suggested that Ackerman is in trouble and the buzz I'm hearing is that the caucus is a little concerned about Tricky Dicky's recent activities.

Why?

It is all over OC Blog that Daucher is going to a Planned Parenthood party to celebrate Roe v. Wade.

Everyone in his home county is against him on the Daucher problem.

He was at the Orange County Central Committee meeting, he quickly excused himself after Van Tran virtually received a standing ovation during introductions. I can't remember who left first, but Daucher did the same thing.

Ackerman's wife, Linda was definately irritated that almost everyone at the Central Committee meeting was wearing a "Van Tran for Senate" sticker that she ripped a sticker off of at least one person.

An impression I'm getting is that Dick doesn't like Van because Dick didn't select Van - Van has been "pushed" on him. Now he's having a little temper tantrum because he wants to make a decision for once.

Lynn Daucher is helping unseat the most conservative member of the OC Supervisors by helping the campaign of a Democrat. Dick Ackerman doesn't care because the target is the person who ran against him in his original Assembly Primary.

He's embarassed his caucus. He says Van isn't interested in running pushes Daucher on them then lets them watch Daucher's candidacy implode as the Van Tran train goes marching by.

He's threatened to use caucus money in a primary.

He's threatened to withold cuacus money during the general if his chosen candidate doesn't win.

There's more to list but Psycho Dad is coming on and I have to go.

About the only thing going for him is that he probably won't cry when he loses.

Righeimer In for the 68th

You heard it here first a week ago when Pete reported that Jim Righeimer was thinking about running in the 68th to replace Van.

Now that Van has announced, it has been reported on FlashReport and on OC Blog that Jim is the de-facto front runner in the race to replace Van Tran.

As Flash reported, Jim Righeimer is a heavy hitter. He's a founding board member of the Family Action PAC, he has millions of dollars, he was part of the Education Alliance helping elect conservative school board members, he'll have the support of county GOP chair Scott Baugh. Should I list more?

Janet Nguyen is a future star in GOP circles, but she should slow down a little and reconsider her campaign. This seat will be open again in six years and in that time she can gain more political experience and build her rolodex to make her a stronger conteneder for this seat. Staying the term now will burn bridges that could be beneficial to her in the future.

CRP abandons Schwarzenegger's Education Agenda

The Calfornia Republican Party sent an email out urging them to watch John Stossel’s Report on 20/20 dealing with education reform.

After the State of the State, I saw clearly that the Governor, liked junk food bans in schools (he mentioned it twice), his after school program and giving tons of money to schools.

Yet the beginning of the CRP email said

"You won’t want to miss John Stossel’s report tonight on 20/20 that examines how
the American school system robs our country’s children of a better
education. The report details that America’s children are falling behind
because of a lack of school choice and the influence of the powerful education
unions."

I watched the show and it attacked the idea money was the answer, it advocated teacher tenure reform and school choice.

The CRP needs to fire their new communications team. How dare they promote an agenda of choice and tenure reform, instead of the Governor's cave in to the teachers union.

Does anyone think the Governor watched it? You can see more on the show here.

Policy Chairman Issa

Jason Roe just posted to the FlashReport blog that Congressman Issa is running for Policy Chairman.

This may be “good” for California, but is it good for Republicans. Issa might’ve been the conservative candidate for U.S. Senate and the recall was great but he has hardly been one of the more conservative members of the California delegation (Bilbray is the most recent example) so I don’t know how good this would be for Conservatives.

There has got to be someone better.

McClintock Statement on the Budget

“Today the Governor released his budget proposal for the 2006-2007 fiscal year.

“It projects general fund spending of $97.9 billion with income of $91.5 billion, for a general fund operating deficit of $6.4 billion. This brings the accumulated three year operating deficit to $9.8 billion.

“This deficit is funded entirely with borrowed funds from Proposition 57, approved by voters in 2004. Although the public was promised that this bond would only be used to pay for past deficits, it is in fact being used to cover deficits for 2004 ($0.6 billion), 2005 ($2.9 billion) and now 2006 ($6.4 billion).

“In November, the Legislative Analyst projected that if nothing were done to rein in spending, the 2006 budget would consume $95.1 billion. The governor proposes spending $2.8 billion above this figure.

“In the last three years, combined population and inflation will have grown 16 percent; revenues 19 percent; spending 25 percent. For the budget year, combined population and inflation will increase 4 percent; revenues 5 percent; spending 9 percent. Revenues continue to outpace inflation and population; spending continues to outpace revenues.

“I have always applied two fundamental tests to a budget: it must be balanced within existing revenues and it must contain a prudent reserve. The proposal as submitted to the legislature fails both tests.”

Imagine - Thomas in Control of Sacramento and Washington

FlashReport has a post about the possible candidacy of Bill Thomas for House Republican Leader. I can’t even image how bad things would be if Sacramento and Washington were both under the leadership of the Thomas Machine.

Tran’s Baggage Revealed?

Ok. I’ve now heard from about six separate sources with a revelation of Tran’s baggage.

Apparently, according to Dick Ackerman, Assemblyman Van Tran went to Thialand to try and free a hijacker.

This sounds bizarre, I know. So I asked around and the requisite six people have heard this rumor (all the same way) but the story still didn’t make sense. So I asked around some more to find the real story. This is what I’ve found.

Yes, Van Tran has recently traveled to Thailand. The person he went to help however, is not a hijacker. The person, a man named Ly Tong, is a hero to the local Vietnamese (and Cuban) communities.

A few years ago Ly Tong rented a plane in Thailand and flew to Vietnam where he dropped anit-Communist leaflets over Saigon during Bill Clinton’s visit. The trip to Vietnam was not on his flight plan, so the person he rented the plane from reported it stolen —even though the plane was returned to its place of origin. Therefore, upon his return, Ly Tong was arrested and charged with hijacking.

This is a very sensitive situation, politically, between the Thai and the Vietnamese. The Vietnamese want Ly Tong extradited to Vietnam where he will be give a fake trial and quickly executed. The two countries are somewhat dependent upon each other so Thailand is under extremely intense pressure from the Communists in Vietnam to extradite Ly Tong.

The local Vietnamese community has been lobbying for Ly Tong to be extradited to the United States. Ly Tong is an American Citizen after all and deserves a fair trial. From what I’ve heard, no one is asking that Ly Tong be set free — the extradition is all they want — and I think everyone could agree that would only be fair.

It is worth noting that Young Americans for Freedom (both in California and Florida) has also been involved in this case. Some YAFers I talked to told me they once setup a website to help Ly Tong. The site went down after a year or two (but can still be seen here through archive.org) when the Thai government kept indefinitely postponing any action on the case. But recent actions have shown that Ly Tong is in extreme danger of being sent to Vietnam which is probably the reason for Van Tran’s recent trip.

It is also worth noting that prior to his arrest in Thailand, Ly Tong flew over Havana Cuba and dropped anti-Communist leaflets during the Cuban National Holiday.

The idea that Dick Ackerman would try and use this against Van Tran is laughable. It shows just how out of touch he is with the local community. It is reasons like this that make it clear that Van Tran is the best candidate. This is why the Asian Community, both Democrat and Republican, will turn out in droves to support Van Tran over any other. Van Tran will have an edge over any candidate, Republican or Democrat, especially now that the difference in registration is only 1.5 percent.

Ray: You Were Wrong About Arnold

I remember it like it was yesterday. It was late September 2003, and I’d heard that Ray Haynes, a longtime field general in the Conservative Movement, was about to endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor. I pulled him aside after a meeting we’d both suffered through and queried him about this seemingly bizarre act. He laid out his arguments that eventually made their way into his infamous “Memo To My Fellow Conservatives,” and told me something not to dissimilar to what made its way into the Memo, that being Arnold is indifferent on the social stuff and with us on the fiscal stuff, he was worthy of our support. And “If I am wrong, I will apologize, and do my political penance.”

Well, Ray, you were wrong, and it is time to apologize, if not also to pay you political penance.

Below you will find this today’s “Monday Morning Memorandum,” a weekly message from Ray that all but says Arnold is not “with us” any longer (if he ever was).

So, I challenge Ray to make next week’s Memo an open letter to conservatives, apologizing for telling us to put our faith in this guy. Ray was one of the guys who held nothing back in lambasting Pete Wilson for being a liberal. Arnold is worse than Wilson ever was, and it is high-time those who supported him say so and apologize for their missteps.

So, I call on Ray to go first, if for no other reason than he gave us his word that he would.

Mirror/Mirror

I am not a trekkie, but I do remember a Star Trek episode in which several members of the crew of the starship Enterprise entered an alternative universe. That universe was the mirror image of the “normal” universe, that is, it was exactly like the normal universe, but everyone in it had the exact opposite character of the people in the normal universe

We have entered that alternative universe in California.

I know that term limits and the recall have substantially diminished the experience in Sacramento, but anyone paying even the smallest attention to history can tell that Gray Davis lost his job because he (1) greatly expanded the government sector of California’s economy, (2) greatly expanded government debt, and (3) greatly expanded government authority over the private sector in the years 1999-2001. Those two years led to the energy crisis of early 2001, the collapse of the private economy (after a five year record growth) in 2001 and 2002, and the fiscal crises that led to the recall of Governor Davis. Governor Schwarzenegger got elected campaigning against these expansions, and promising to “clean house” in Sacramento.

In the alternative universe, as seen on the “Mirror/Mirror” episode in Star Trek, Schwarzenegger would be expanding government, expanding government debt and intruding on the private sector. And, indeed, he is.

Let’s look back in California history. In the late 1980’s, Governor Deukmejian, in order to get prison and freeway funding, gave away some very serious concessions to the leftists, vastly expanding state spending and increasing worker’s compensation benefits. In 1991, to accomplish his agenda, Pete Wilson was forced to increased taxes. The ensuing collapse in California’s economy was precipitous. From the Great Depression to 1992, California’s general fund revenue went up every single year. In the 1992-93 fiscal year, for the first time in modern history, California’s general fund revenue dropped in real terms, from $42.1 billion to $40.9 billion.

The state then repealed the upper income tax rate, cut other taxes, reformed worker’s compensation, reduced regulations, and the economy and state general fund revenue exploded, from $40.1 billion in 1993-4 to $79 billion in 2000-01. In 2000 and 2001, the state increased fees and regulations, increased workers’ compensation benefits, substantially increased the size of government, increased the minimum wage, increased environmental and workplace regulation, and did everything it could to interfere with the private economy. As a result, in the 2001-02 budget year, once again, general fund revenue dropped substantially, from $79 billion to $66 billion, leading to the largest budget crisis in the history of the state. Two years later, Gray Davis lost his job.

Now Governor Schwarzenegger, in light of his recent loss at the polls, and his sagging popularity, thinks that he needs to do something different in his job, so he has chosen to increase government debt and government regulation on business. He has already demonstrated a penchant for increasing environmental regulations. An increase in work place regulations, like the minimum wage, and an increase in government debt, is the next step down the road to economic collapse—again.

Governor Schwarzenegger looks back to Pat Brown as the builder of the California dream. Except Pat Brown did his building with little borrowed money, and Ronald Reagan defeated Brown because Brown was a big spender. I am concerned that now that we have entered into this alternative universe, some Democrat is going to assume the Ronald Reagan role, move to the right of Schwarzenegger on spending issues, and carry a broom to sweep him out of office.

In Star Trek, Kirk returned to the Enterprise when Spock was able to reverse the glitch in the transporter that sent Kirk and some of his crew to the alternative universe. Our problem isn’t caused by a transporter glitch. How are we going to get out of this universe?

Righeimer for Assembly!

With all the brouhaha last week about the drama in SD34, there is another aspect of the race that certainly will get the rumor mill – at least behind the Orange Curtain – going.

That is, if Van is the nominee, who replaces Van?

As of this writing, the conventional wisdom is that Freshman Garden Grove Councilwoman Janet Nguyen would step into Van’s seat. She is young, ambitious, and as a boost to her for this seat, she is Vietnamese.

However, I’d like to throw out another name – Jim Righeimer. Jim, as many know, is a conservative OC-insider, a former co-author of Prop 226 (the original Paycheck Protection Initiative), and a Board Member of the Family Action PAC. Jim’s legacy includes having lost to Tom Harman for Assembly in the Open Primary era, whereby Jim drew considerably more Republican votes, but because of his attractiveness to Democrats, Harman squeezed out a narrow victory.

Now, 6 years later, Jim has made a good living for himself, and could be itching for another shot at the Assembly.

From where I sit, it would be a welcome addition to the Assembly GOP Caucus.

So, I say, let’s draft Righeimer for Assembly!

Quote of the month

"Today it is more politically correct to bash Abramoff and anyone he stood in line with at the grocery store let along gave a contribution to, than to give a college scholarship to a one-legged, lesbian illegal alien." - FR Blogger and pollster extraordinaire, Adam Probolsky

GOP Hypocrites on State of the State

A glance of at some of the responses to the Governor's State of the State reveal all we have to know about GOP Lawmakers.

Assemblyman Tom Harman:

"I support Schwarzenegger's efforts to move California forward"

Assemblyman Todd Spitzer:

" We must continue to advocate for fiscal responsibility, improving the economic
climate for businesses and improving our education system. The governor appears
committed to these goals."

Assemblyman Mike Villines:

"Governor Schwarzenegger laid out a bold plain to rebuild our state."

Senator Jim Battin:

"... I am excited about working with him to eliminate wasteful government
spending and increase protections for our families."

They and most of the others that spouted this stuff have to be kidding. $222 billion in spending, $70 billion in G.O. Bonds, minimum wage increase, fees (tax) increases on everyone.

If a Democratic Governor had proposed this they would not be saying the same things and everyone knows it. Time to stand on principle gentlemen. You reveal yourselves for the hypocrites you've become (or were already).

Is Jim Brulte the Biggest Hypocrite in CA?

For years, Republicans have talked of reaching out to build support among women and minorities. Now, state Senator Jim Brulte is putting his money where his party's mouth is--and jaws are dropping. Brulte, one of California's savviest GOP strategists, has announced a sort of ad hoc affirmative action plan: Henceforth, he said, he will contribute in party primaries only to women and minority candidates. "I think our message, by and large is all right. But if we're ever going to be the majority party and govern in California, we need a more diverse group of messengers," said the Rancho Cucamonga lawmaker. -LA Times

Jim Brulte received undue credit for the 1994 Republican takeover of the State Assembly. You have to keep in mind that 1994 had a huge national Republican trend that had more to do with the anti Bill Clinton mood and Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” than anything Brulte burped up.

Is Brulte a political genius? Hardly. He was a key figure that worked out the “incumbent protection” redistricting measure where he locked in for 10 years Democrat control over the State Assembly and State Senate. And why? Because he wanted a plane ride on Air Force One. Additionally, his lack of leadership in the recall movement was deafening.

This year, Brulte is doing everything he can to keep an image of the Republican Party as the Party of “Old White Guys” or “the Rich.”

Look at Brulte’s record of endorsements:

U.S. Senate Race:
Bill Jones over Rosario Marin (Hispanic)

State Controller
Tony Strickland over Abel Maldonado (Hispanic)

Attorney General
Chuck Poochigian over Pierre Prosper (Black)

Insurance Commissioner
Steve Poizner over Gary Mendoza (Hispanic)

Board of Equalization 3rd District
Ray Haynes over Michelle Steel (Asian/Woman)

Congressional District 48
John Campbell over Marilyn Brewer (Woman)

State Senate 34th District
Lynn Daucher (Rich) over Van Tran (Asian)


On behalf of all California Republicans, I would like to thank Jimmy Brulte. If for nothing else, for teaching us that Gastric bypass surgery (stomach stapling) works.

Lew Uhler on the State of the State

“Devil in the Details”
TAXPAYERS SHOULD DEMAND BOND SPENDING SAFEGUARDS
FROM THE LEGISLATURE

“As always, in a major new spending measure of the kind the Governor is proposing, the ‘devil is in the details.’ Taxpayers would be well advised to await the details and demand accountability and assurances before making a final judgment. The Governor has proposed; let’s see if the Legislature is willing to ‘dispose’ in a way taxpayers can endorse,” said Lewis K. Uhler, President of the National Tax Limitation Committee.

Uhler continued, “California’s infrastructure, especially our roads and highways, are in desperate need of expansion and repair. There is no debate about that. It is how we pay for it that is at issue.


“General obligation bonds are an appropriate funding source if the proceeds are actually used for construction of ‘hard assets’ that have a useful life longer than the pay-off period of the bonds (like the mortgage on a home).

But $68 billion of new debt, even over 10 years, is huge and should not be undertaken unless taxpayers of California are given some firm assurances regarding fiscal discipline, efficiency and accountability with respect to bond debt and the use of the bond proceeds. These assurances requiring legislative action should include:

· A constitutional limit on future debt service as a percentage of general fund revenues so as to protect California’s bond rating (the Governor’s 6% appears reasonable);

· Getting a bigger bang for our highway buck by reducing the role of extraordinarily inefficient CalTrans in favor of local transportation agencies, public/private partnerships and creative new solutions, such as using the airspace above existing freeways for automated, high-speed automobile corridors;

· Reducing the cost of all public works, including schools, water projects, roads, etc., by waiving/repealing “Little Davis-Bacon” which requires paying the highest, rather than competitive, wages;

· Uniquely local projects should be paid for by local bonds, and those improvements susceptible to user fees, such as bridges, where the beneficiaries are easily defined should be constructed from the proceeds of revenue bonds paid through tolls;

· Streamline environmental requirements so that infrastructure can be improved/built quickly and precious bond funds are not dissipated on “mitigation measures.”

Ackerman’s Tangled Web: Tran/Daucher/Norby/Espinoza

There are two people Dick Ackerman hates in Orange County. Chris Norby and Van Tran.Why?

Chris Norby is obvious. The two Fullerton City Council colleagues ran against each other in the Primary for State Assembly in the early ’90s. Ackerman won and has held a grudge ever since; Norby remained on the City Council and was eventually elected to the Orange County Board of Supervisors where he is the only conservative – his colleagues are Democrat Lou Correa and three Lynn Daucher clones.

Van Tran is not so obvious. Speculation abounds, but no one can explain why Dick hates him so.

But the web is even more tangled.

Dick Ackerman has been recruiting Lynn Daucher to run for something – anything it seems – for a while. Prior to bringing her into the State Senate race, he was trying to recruit her to run against Chris Norby. (Norby is targeted by the unions because he opposed a pension increase that will potentially lead Orange County down the bankruptcy path – again).

Now that Daucher is out of the supervisorial picture, Norby’s opponent is La Habra Councilwoman Rose Espinoza.

Rose is a popular Democrat in the city. She started a charity called Rosie’s Garage – in her garage – and finally won election after two unsuccessful attempts. Her momentum has continued to increase and if John Moorlach continues to be unopposed in his bid for Supervisor, Norby could face the full front of a union attack through Espinoza.

The relation of all this to Dick Ackerman: Rose Espinoza was Lynn Daucher’s Woman of the Year. Lynn Daucher clearly supports Democrats – Democrats trying to unseat the only voice of reason on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

In supporting Daucher, Ackerman surely knew he was supporting the Democrat trying to unseat in an incumbent Republican Supervisor. But why should he care? If, Espinoza is successful, he will have settled a decade’s old grudge against Chris Norby.

The crazy question is: Does Dick Ackerman have a real beef with Van Tran or is opposing Van Tran simply a means to an end in his feud with Chris Norby.

Declaration of War by Cal-YAF

I heard Cal-YAF was going to start a special project called “Conservatives Against Daucher,” which is going to be a special project that will go on even after the Primary if Daucher makes it that far or even if Van decides not to seek the seat.

Kind of spoils the Country Club Republican plan to foist someone for the seat.

I always liked Cal-YAF's "you are with us or against us" mentality.

Joe Giardiello Gives 6 for 2006

1) Duh. Tom McClintock wins statewide office in 06. He is immediately considered a dark horse Vice Presidential candidate for 08.

2) In a move which ends talk of a Vice Presidential nomination, Lt. Governor Tom McClintock closes the Fresno and Los Angeles offices and re-opens one in a penthouse suite at the Mandalay Bay and another beside a trout stream in Colorado. His District Director is never heard from again.

3) Even though Steve Westly has the most Lesbian, Gay, Bi-Sexual, Transgender endorsements (at least according to his website), Angelides wins the Democratic nomination for governor. Unions run this state; why should that change now?

4) Antonio Villaraigosa ends 2006 one of the most popular Mayors in Los Angeles history. He will be the next United States Senator from California.

5) Thanks to the brilliant leadership role of Cal-YAF, Van Tran wins the 34th Senate District.

6) Michelle Steel, clearly the only lucid candidate for the 3rd District BOE, wins easily.

SD 34 Update

The 34th Senate district sits smack dab in the middle of Orange County, but it has been represented by Democrat Joe Dunn for almost eight years. Over the last two years OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh has done a great job of directing party resources into the 34th, to up registration and build a Republican infrastructure. The seat is up for grabs this year.

But many Orange County Republicans (and one key OC Register Editorial writer) are up in arms over the heavy-handed attempts by Senator Dick Ackerman to force Lynn Daucher on them. Daucher is a liberal Republican who represents a very different north Orange County seat (72) in the Assembly and has little in common with the folk in the 34th. The candidate who represents a large portion of the 34th, and who has a solid political structure already in place, in Assemblyman Van Tran.

Ackerman, who, to put it mildly, has never liked Van Tran, has convinced Daucher to move into the central county 34th district and promised her the world if she does it. He also promised her united OC Republican support - which he cannot deliver. For instance, today Ackerman's office released a list of 11 Senators supposedly supporting Daucher. The only name on the list from an Orange County seat, Sen. Bill Morrow, promptly contradicted Ackerman and said he most definately was not supporting Daucher.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is Tran's highest profile endorsement, but look for that to change in the next few days as another OC Congressman decides to stand up to Ackerman and support Van Tran.

Ackerman has said he will not fund the race if Tran wins the primary. All this GOP in-fighting is music to the Democrat's ears. Right now, there is only real candidate, a very weak Tom Umburg. But Lou Correa is looking at the seat.

CD50 Update

As reported on several blogs (including this one!) and confirmed in today's TargetBook HotSheet,

a)Issa is going to bat for Bilbray, offering his endorsement to the markedly-less former Congressman, who wavered all over the place over even whether to impeach Bill Clinton.

b)Bilbray is ditching Duane Dichiara and Coronado Communications for Dave Gilliard and Co.

What isn't reported is the connecting tissues, and while I don't have confirmation of this, it only makes sense...

Two words: Phil Paule.

Paule is a regular partner with Gilliard and is District Director to Issa. My question is, why is Paule going to bat for Bilbray?

Phil's the kind of guy notorious for only looking out for himself, so I have to wonder what his stake in this whole thing is, as I fail to believe he either a)thinks Bilbray is the best man for the job, or b)doesn't have a direct stake in it.

Is it a beef with Kaloogian, Morrow, Uke, etc? Or that matter with Sal Russo, Joe Justin, or Jim Nygren? Is he just getting a big fat kickback from GBWA?

Any insights here? As this certainly changes the dynamics of this race considerably.

More, More, More

More, More, More.

The three most important words from the SOS were "more, more, more."

With Gray Davis looking on as the Governor's guest, Arnold called for more of everything, especially government spending.

It sounded and reads like a Democrat dream list - higher minimum wage, after-school programs, imported prescription drugs, HOV lanes, mass transit, more money for education, etc., etc., etc..

Blowing up boxes? Forget it. According to Arnold, it time to build more boxes, and to put them on the charge card. Sure, he included a few (very few) words about fiscal responsibility. But that was clearly not his focus. He plans to spend his way out of his political troubles.

In short, the Democrats have Arnold exactly where they want him. They know it and he accepts it.

We are all going to pay for many years to come.

Steve Schmidt a Great Pick for Governor

As reported in the SF Chron today, the Governor will be bringing Steve Schmidt out to be day-to-day manager of his re-election campaign.

What a great pick!

This appointment, following the naming of Adam Mendelsohn as Communications Director in the horseshoe, Arnold has almost made up for the Susan Kennedy pick.

Steve is a top notch operator and has a reputation for being relentless and very focused. The reputation is deserved. Your Observer knows him from both prior California campaigns and his recent work with the Bush operation. He is one of the best.

Good pick by Arnold, Marty Wilson, etc.

Brian Park Gives 6 for '06

And not all of them on California politics... nice touch!

1. Michelle Steel, the current Deputy BOE, will become our next Board of Equalization member for the 3rd District.

2. Two former or current YAF members will be elected to the State Assembly

3. Tom McClintock finally wins a statewide election

4. Rise of Anti-Communism in South Korea which will lead to a staunch anti-communist Christian conservative becoming the next South Korean president in 2007 and as Goldman Sachs predicts . . . will become the number 2 economic powerhouse behind the United States within 30 years.

5. Rwanda and Zambia will become two major Christian countries and will become a model to all the nations in Africa in fighting aids, corruption, crime, and promotion of economic growth through the market economy and limited government.

6. Slate cards will have a major impact in the 2006 elections. There is a possibility that slate cards will be introduced as a campaign tool in foreign elections.

Luck o' the Irish, Kevin Spillane's 6 for '06

1) Contrary to Establishment Conventional Wisdom, State Sen. Tom McClintock will be elected Lt. Governor in 2006.

2) New Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Development Dan Dunmoyer will quickly emerge as a Republican star and major force within the Schwarzenegger Administration.

3) Steve Westly will upset Phil Angelides in the Demo primary for Governor because of the latter's baggage as an ethically-challenged developer.

4) Asian Republicans have not been visible since Matt Fong, Nao Takasugi and Jay Kim left the scene in the late 1990's. In 2006, they will once again emerge prominently in the GOP. Michele Steel will beat Ray Haynes for the Board of Equalization, Van Tran will capture the GOP nod if he decides to run for state Senate and there is a Tran-Daucher primary (a prospect I believe will ultimately be avoided) and go on to win the 34th Senate District and Janet Nguyen will succeed Tran in the Assembly.

5) Rep. Bill Thomas will retire from Congress just before the filing deadline, clearing the path for his protege, Assemblyman Kevin McCarthy, to succeed him.

6) Republicans will suffer losses in Congress due to the Six-Year Itch but they won't be as large as Conventional Wisdom currently holds and both parties will capture key governorships currently held by the other party.

Dave Gilliard Picks 6 for '06

Kudos to Dave for making some fairly provocative picks!

1)Steve Westly comes from behind to win the Democrat nomination for Governor after a vicious personal attack by Phil Angelides backfires.

2)A prominent Democrat consultant will take over Schwarzenegger’s political operation before the end of summer.

3)The Illegal immigration issue will fracture the state GOP, with the Chamber of Commerce wing and the Grassroots in an all-out war before the end of the year.

4)Both the Assembly and Senate GOP caucus see leadership fights, with at least one new leader before the end of session.

5)There will be one surprise retirement from the Congressional delegation and one incumbent will lose.

6)Bruce McPhereson is the only Republican elected statewide in 2006.

Marvin Lucas offers up 6 for '06

1) Westly beats Angelides largely due to Phil "the Sleaze's" developer label.
2) Arnold beats Steve, but Reeps ponder "what is the difference?"
3) McClintock is the true Reep top of the ticket and drives their voters to the polls
4) Tricky Dick sticks with Daucher and Umberg sails to victory.
5) John McCain privately promises Joe Lieberman the VPOTUS slot.
6) Mike Machado makes a run for Congress


(...still not too late to offer up your 6 predictions for 2006. All you have to do is email me!)