Friday, June 02, 2006

Quick Thoughts on Field

Today’s Field Poll is out – as was broken here before the other blogs got wind of it.

In it were many a point of fascination.

On the Dem side, the story of a tight race misses the point. The story is two-fold. First is that Angelides is surging. From April when he was down 11-points, Phil is back and certainly has the momentum.

The other story is that the supposed Westly lead never really existed. In all of the earlier Field studies, dating back to June ’05, Angelides was up. It was only when Westly was on TV with a big puff buy and Phil wasn’t on tv at all that Westly took a lead.

When things have been even – Phil’s been winning. I expect Election Day to be no different.

I believe the other story is the growing dissatisfaction with the Governor among the GOP base.

A candidate image portion of their January ’04 study found the Governor with 10% disapproval among Republicans. Today, the unfavorable number rests at exactly double that (that's 20% for my public school pals).

Many conservatives have been warning that the Governor’s leftward leanings could cost him at the ballot box. This would appear to validate those fears.

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