Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Why Is Tony Winning?

Back-to-back public polls (here and here) have Tony Strickland up on Abel Maldonado in their race for the Republican nomination for Controller.

First to release was the Field Poll (FIELD, as the old joke goes, stands for Findings InEvitably Lean Democratic), which had Tony Strickland with a 9-point edge (23-14).

Next to come was the LA Times poll, which found Tony with a 7-point lead (18-11).

Two polls, Tony up in both.

With a termed-out Assemblyman against a Bay Area Senator, it is highly unlikely that either candidate really has the requisite statewide name-id to explain any sort of preference with the voters.

Even more interesting were Field’s findings that despite a 9-point ballot test edge, the candidates’ favorables/unfavorables are:

Abel – 11/12
Tony – 9/8

So, how does anyone explain Tony being up given this?

Could it be as simple as Republican Primary voters being leery of a Hispanic-named candidate? Or is Tony’s history as a conservative activist more explanatory? Or something else?

4 Comments:

At 5/03/2006 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

FIELD is polling a bunch of union members who have read TonyTheStrickland

 
At 5/05/2006 7:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the interesting thing is that none of the polls are including Jim Stieringer's name in their polling. I would suspect that his ballot title will be very helpful and it wouldn't surprise me to see him up at 20% or so and that would affect the results of the race.

 
At 5/19/2006 5:56 PM, Anonymous Tired of Tony's Tactics said...

April 10-13 dates of the Field Poll ?!
Was that before or after the Audra/Tony cash-swapping-laundering was revealed?

 
At 5/20/2006 3:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Audra Strickland a poster child for corruption. Hiring each other, Tony and Audra with campaign funds.

Lets not forget about taking 26,600 from State Republicans to give to her husbands group. The California Club for Growth. Only that money was then used by DMH printing in Irvine to send attack mailers against Nicole Parra in the Central Valley (all a violation of proposition 34's rules on independent expenditures). One day the FPPC and good ole boy, Ventura D.A. Totten, might actually slam the two shysters over it... (check CALACCESS)

 

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