Saturday, February 04, 2006

What Is Phil Paule Thinking?

A few weeks ago, Phil Paule posted on the Flashreport, that in his esteemed opinion, Ray Haynes stood as the front runner in the race for BOE 3.

He based this on a few things:
1)Haynes’ longstanding reputation in Riverside County, a good chunk of the district,
2)Haynes’ history of writing op-eds in the OC Register and the SDUT,
and 3)What Phil calls “The Brulte factor,” that being Big Jimmy’s ability to turn on the cash spigots at a moment’s notice.

Despite those things, and as much as I personally like Ray, I just don’t see how in the wide world that can happen.

Michelle’s $415k in the bank just plain dwarfs Ray’s $77k, and even by Phil’s own admission, Michelle has the ability to self-fund – a resource she’s yet to really tap.

$77k isn’t enough to get your message out in an Assembly seat, let alone an area 20x the size of an Assembly seat!

Michelle has the slates and the cash. I don’t see how she loses.

14 Comments:

At 2/04/2006 1:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Michelle also has the ballot designation, "Deputy, Board of Equalization Member."

All those Op-Ed's didn't help Ray in Riverside and San Diego and Orange when he ran for U.S. Senate.

Christian right will not come out for him because of his mid-life crisis.

 
At 2/04/2006 2:46 AM, Anonymous Phil is a Joke said...

Phil's predictions are:

1. Blunt for Leader (wrong)
2. Issa for Policy Chair (wrong)
3. Bilbray for Congress (will be wrong)
4. Haynes over Steel (will be wrong)

Let's go to an Indian casino and bet the ranch.

 
At 2/04/2006 9:38 AM, Anonymous Phil's RIght said...

Phil's reasoning is correct. Haynes probably starts wil a substantial lead beacuse of his elected positions over the years and the widespread exposure he has received on talk radio. Steel will have to spend all her $500k to catch up, then it will be a horse race.

 
At 2/04/2006 10:39 AM, Anonymous Paule's Amateurish Analysis said...

Are you kidding. Here is the reality of the LA media market. It is difficult if not impossible for any politician to break through and establish any kind of significant name ID without:

1) A boatload of cash
2) Their own cable network news show

Paule's reasoning is once again flawed and amateurishly clouded by his own feelings.

 
At 2/04/2006 11:57 AM, Anonymous Phil's RIght said...

You just proved Phil's case. Steel's $500,000 won't buy much in the LA Market and she starts way behind.

 
At 2/04/2006 12:07 PM, Anonymous Phil Paule said...

Nothig like getting attacked by the anonymous crowd to really make my day.

I did admit I was wrong on the Majority leader race as I posted on the FlashReport.

As far as the LA media goes, you are right, and it is great that Ray Haynes is on KFI almost once a week.

 
At 2/04/2006 12:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Phil needs to stop having conversations with himself in order to make his day.

 
At 2/04/2006 1:44 PM, Anonymous phil is a joke said...

Paule is yesterday’s news. His best campaign days are in the review mirror. The reason Issa (our tax dollars) pays him $100K a year is because he has the goods on Issa. When not keeping Boo Hoo Issa’s secrets from the public, he acts as the hatchet man for Dave “Dirty Campaigns” Gilliard slandering loyal Americans like Jim Gilchrist. Phil can afford to have an illegal immigrants mow his lawn with all the hush money he makes from Issa.

 
At 2/05/2006 7:43 AM, Anonymous Ballot Designation said...

To say that Ray has a $500K lead due to name id is a total joke and has absolutely no clue about BOE.

Ray may have name ID among insiders but average voters don't know who he is.

I can't believe Phil mentioned the weekly KFI interviews. That did Gilchrist a lot of good.

Looking at Michelle's website, I see that she has the endorsement of Larry Elder of KABC. Is this a war between KFI and KABC?

The ballot designation for an obscure race gives Steel the lead. Anyone that says otherwise haven't looked into the history of the BOE race.

The way Michelle is raising money, I figure she will hit $1 million cash on hand soon.

 
At 2/06/2006 11:06 AM, Blogger NickM said...

And how much good will Michelle's job title do when the newspapers start asking questions about her husband donating $4600 ($1600 on 2/10/05 and another $3000 on 2/10/05) to Claude Parrish before she got the job? At that time, Bill Simon was in the race, so no one could have reasonably thought Claude was the leading conservative choice.

Selling state jobs for campaign money is highly illegal, and Bill Lockyer won't show a Republican the favoritism he gave Kevin Shelley.

The arrangement smells strongly of an Abramoff-style quid pro quo.

 
At 2/07/2006 9:16 PM, Anonymous down on the msm said...

Nickm:

Get real. When was the last time a newspaper wrote ANYTHING about a board of equalization race?

It's all about name ID (which neither has), slates ($$$) and ballot designation (advantage: Michelle).

 
At 2/11/2006 12:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Phil Paule will be proven right. Michelle Steel would have to spend far more than a million to catch up to Ray Haynes.

The ballot title won't help her because it ties her to Claude Parrish.

Besides, for anyone stupid enough to vote for someone because they seem connected to the Board of Equalization, there is ANOTHER Board staff member in the race (Steve Petruzzo), who will presumably split the tiny pro-BOE vote in the Republican primary (all 17 of those people).

 
At 2/11/2006 2:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The above poster doesn't know what he is talking about.

Only the Chief Deputy can use the ballot designation.

Unless this Steve guy is a chief deputy in another district, he can't use the ballot designation.

Anyone that says the ballot designation doesn't matter has no clue about BOE.

 
At 3/07/2006 2:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

paule has been and always will be an idiot. the only quetion that remains to be answered is con. issa an idiot as well. geez congressman why keep this loser on your staff.wait, " hi, my name is phil paule and i am a 45 year old field rep." lol.

 

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