Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Luck o' the Irish, Kevin Spillane's 6 for '06

1) Contrary to Establishment Conventional Wisdom, State Sen. Tom McClintock will be elected Lt. Governor in 2006.

2) New Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Development Dan Dunmoyer will quickly emerge as a Republican star and major force within the Schwarzenegger Administration.

3) Steve Westly will upset Phil Angelides in the Demo primary for Governor because of the latter's baggage as an ethically-challenged developer.

4) Asian Republicans have not been visible since Matt Fong, Nao Takasugi and Jay Kim left the scene in the late 1990's. In 2006, they will once again emerge prominently in the GOP. Michele Steel will beat Ray Haynes for the Board of Equalization, Van Tran will capture the GOP nod if he decides to run for state Senate and there is a Tran-Daucher primary (a prospect I believe will ultimately be avoided) and go on to win the 34th Senate District and Janet Nguyen will succeed Tran in the Assembly.

5) Rep. Bill Thomas will retire from Congress just before the filing deadline, clearing the path for his protege, Assemblyman Kevin McCarthy, to succeed him.

6) Republicans will suffer losses in Congress due to the Six-Year Itch but they won't be as large as Conventional Wisdom currently holds and both parties will capture key governorships currently held by the other party.

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