COS Kennedy

The Governor is expected to name Davis/Dem staffer Susan Kennedy COS within 24 hours. This betrayal of the Recall will set off a war inside the GOP between the rank and file and the chamber/donor types. Among other things, Kennedy is a former ED of the California Democratic Party and the Calif. Abortion Rights Action League.

Are You Now or Have You Ever Been a Member of the Republican Party?

Arnold should Switch Parties if he proposes a massive bond and gives Tookie Williams a clemency. What does being a "Republican" mean if you propose bond measures and give mercy to killers?

Also, let's get rid of the phrase, "fiscally conservative and socially moderate." What this phrase means is that you don't have any principles and decide policy wherever the political wind blows.

Arnold is not a "fiscal conservative." He is a fiscal moderate to liberal. The Dems are outright socialist/red.

The anger that propelled the recall movement needs to be revived. Let the Democrats have the Governorship. My impression is that the Democrat's top political agendas are for Illegals, gays, and more spending.

They will propose drivers license to illegals, expanded health-care to illegals, expanded public education to illegals, job protection to illegals, gay marriage, gay adoption, gay public schools, gay drivers license, gay, illegal, gay, illegal, gay, illegal, gay, illegal, gay, illegal, more spending on something, gay, illegal, gay, illegal, more spending on something, bonds, increasing "fees" etc.

Maybe we can bring another tax revolt in California by dragging California to the ground first. I really don't like this idea but we are incrementally becoming a socialist state. I have given up on the idea of having a "Republican majority" fixing fiscal problems. Look at congress made up of majority "Republicans" that clasify themselves as "conservatives" and "fiscal conservative and social moderates." Spend, Spend, Spend is the agenda.

Thoughts on the Latest Field Poll

As the Jets and Saints are playing, and I couldn't care less who wins, I thought I’d put some thoughts together on Field’s latest survey, this one of name-id of next year’s statewide candidates.

As I’m a Republican, and don’t really know much about what goes on on the other side of the aisle, I’ll stick to commenting on our guys.

GOVERNOR

Governator
92% Name-ID
Overall 38-54 Approve/Disapprove
74-19 Among Republicans

As far as I’m concerned, the big news of this survey is somehow, 8% of the state hasn’t heard of Governor Schwarzenegger. Seriously, who are these people? And isn’t there a legit case to be made that these people should be disenfranchised?

I’m confident the 38% Approve will be remedied, but the thing to watch is how much of the 74-19 base vote will have to be sacrificed to bring it up elsewhere?

LG

Senator Tom McClintock
53% Name-ID
Overall 35-18 A/D
55-8 Among Republicans
23-27 Among Democrats
25-18 Among Independents

If Tom McClintock had the Name ID Arnold had, his approvals would be 61%, a staggeringly high number for a Republican legislator, especially a conservative one.

That his Approvals are nearly 7:1 among Republicans isn’t particularly newsworthy, though being a State Senator with 63% Name-ID among Republicans at least is worthy of note.

What’s more interesting is the barely less than 1:1 rating among Democrats, and nearly 1.4:1 among Independents.

All in all, any Democrat is going to have their work cut out for them if they plan to beat Tom in 2006.

AG

Senator Chuck Poochigian
14% Name-ID
Overal 8-6 A/D
11-7 Among Republicans

Senator Poochigian’s numbers are undeniably disappointing. As a veteran Central Valley legislator, and the high-profile author of Arnold’s Worker’s Comp Reform, how can Senator Poochigian’s numbers be so low?

I mean, the survey claims to have an margin of error of 5%, but there’s no way that’s true, as it also claims that Phil Kurzner has 15% Name-ID, and while I like the good Doc, there is no way 15 out of every 100 people know him.

But what is telling, is that margin aside, how are Pooch’s numbers even within the margin of Kurzner’s?

And as someone who has largely stayed out of the Central Valley GOP’s Civil Wars, how are his approvals among Republicans only 1.5:1?

This is serious cause for concern, and something that Poochigian and Khachigian are going to have to remedy!

TREASURER

Richman and Parrish both have 14% Name-ID.

Richman has 8-6 overall numbers, with 6-5 among Republicans.

Parrish is 6-8 overall, with 7-12 among Republicans.

Neither are good. Obviously, if another candidate doesn’t get in this race, Lockyer wins without even breaking a sweat.

CONTROLLER

Senator Abel Maldonado, having just finished up a hugely expensive State Senate race encompassing 1/40 of the state and several major media markets, comes in with 20% statewide Name-ID, broken evenly at 10 up and 10 down.

Interestingly, he shows only 9% approval among Republicans, with 13% disapproval.

Former Assemblyman Tony Strickland has even more lackluster numbers. While he shows a surprising 18% statewide recognition, he comes in at 1:1.5 negatives, and even more shocking, Tony’s numbers are more than 1:2 negative among Republicans!

SECRETARY OF STATE

Bruce McPhereson
28% Name-ID
19-9 A/V
23-11 Among Republicans

While only more than a quarter of the state has any reasonable idea who Bruce McPhereson is, among those who do, he has pretty good standing for an appointed Republican officeholder.

More than 2:1, both among all voters and the electorate at large, Bruce’s status as appealing to moderates has served him well.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

This race will get so much attention on the blogs elsewhere, I’ll point to just one number, that I will deem the “Poizner Index,” that being his negative rating among Republicans. We’ll see if the Republican grassroots can bring this number high enough to cost Steve the nomination.

This survey, the benchmark for the “Poizner Index,” has it at 7%.

Governor Houdini-egger’s Slight of Hand Act

So, the big news around the state is that the Governor is considering granting clemency to Crips-thug-murderer Stanley “Tookie” Williams.

Snoop Dogg and others have been urging that because Williams has apparently become a “good citizen,” he shouldn’t be held accountable for all the little pesky things he did, you know, like killing people (Oh, for what it’s worth Williams claims he is innocent…too bad the facts don’t back up his claims).

Conservatives are up in arms that the Governor would even be considering letting this killer free from the death he rightly deserves.

Which, while I can certainly see how the Governor would make his argument if he did decide to set Tookie free (hide behind the Catholicism for the conservatives, and give high-fives to all his liberal pals), I think this is all a big act.

While the Governor is a liberal on things like the environment, abortion, and the like – he’s always been with us on two things: taxes and public safety.

By taking these meetings, the Governor gets props from the lefties as a reasonable guy. However, by then denying the clemency, the Governor re-establishes his base, and begins to rebuild the bridge to the majority of Californians, who while left-of-center on all sorts of things, are still all about putting murderers “in the chair,” so to speak.

This slight of hand act would make even Houdini proud.

Biggest Loser is NOT on NBC!

The Billionaire Switch-Hitter That Couldn¹t Buy a Hit

Steve Poizner adds another strike out, now batting .000, whether batting
from the Republican side or the Democrat side of the plateŠ


The past baseball season proved once again that money cannot buy
championships. Pity the teams with the largest payrolls, the Yankees, Red
Sox and Angles, who sat at home watching the lowly White Sox capture their
first World Series in nearly a century. Baseball is a team sport, one that
takes great pitching, fielding, hitting, and yes, sometimes a timely pinch
hit or two. So what does that have to do with politics?

It is undeniable that the California Republican Party has seen better days.
The Party is much like the present day Dodgers; like Sandy Koufax, Fernando
Valenzuela, Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser, so too memories of Ronald
Reagan, George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson seem so far away. Some argue that
the only way to recapture past success is to follow a different path.
Others argue that to regain a bit of red in this blue state of ours, we need
to go back and capture the principles that made us predominant at one time.

But one thing is for certain. To recapture old glory, via new paths or old
ones we cannot succumb to the notion that money will buy us success. To
think that the moneyed interests in Sacramento can bring us back to glory is
a pipedream. Or that the moneyed interests even care about anything but
preserving what power they have. Besides, how much does that power amount
to if you find yourself in the cellar every election cycle? If you can¹t
even get to the playoffs, much less the World Series are we doing much more
than moving our eighth hitter to the ninth spot?

That brings me to Steve Poizner. - the latest in a long line of wealthy
novices to throw his hat in the political ring. What is different this time
is not only the attitude that ³I can buy this election with my overwhelming
financial advantage and endorsements from the entrenched leadership², but
something even more troubling, At least those who went before knew for
which team they were playing. With Steve, you can¹t be sure. ­ even if he
wears the same uniform, he has many times showed up in the other guys¹
dugout.

What¹s even worse, whether batting on our team or the Democrat team, he
has failed to squeeze out even one lousy single. And the sacrifice play
isn¹t even in his playbook! Having lost bids for Al Gore, the Recount in
Florida, an Assembly seat, a seat on the PUC, Steve struck out at every at
bat.

So, perhaps in a last ditch effort to get his first hit, Steve stepped up to
the plate and paid a huge sum of money for the manager Governor to displace
the original Chair of Prop 77, Bill Mundell with this yet unproven pinch
hitter, Steve Poizner. Seemingly getting anxious to get his first hit,
Poizner, pushed his way into the starting lineup. Now that is rare, a
batter giving money to the management! Partly because of the ensuing
dissention and media inquiry, Poizner struck out in a fashion not seen since
the Gubernatorial drubbing Republicans took in 1998, whiffing by some
20-percentage points. Bottom line, Republicans lost and Steve¹s batting
average was still at .000

So, where does that leave us? In all seriousness, while Steve Poizner has a
lot of money, and has voiced his intention to use it in bundles, it is
likely that he won¹t be able to buy the loyalty of his own team. Like big
money ownership spending freely on free agents, political candidates who do
the same, usually end up severely disappointed. This time will be no
different

Email to Jim Gilchrist's Campaign

There has been a lot of things said privately about Jim Gilchrist, a lot of speculation of supposed "skeletons in his closet."

So to clear the air, I have emailed the following questions to newfound campaign manager, Michael Jameson. I hope Jim stands up and answers these questions, so we can get back to a campaign about how much the RNC still misses the boat on immigration...

1)Were you ever financially compensated for your Minute Man activities?

2)Have you filed all your required financial reports with the Federal Elections Commission?

3)During your 1992 bankruptcy, did you ever try and hide assets from the bankruptcy court?

4)How many times have you been married and have you ever failed to pay your child support?

5)Was your Certified Public Account license ever suspended during your practice?

6)Have you ever been arrested?

7)Have you ever publicly engaged in boycotting Hispanic businesses?

8)Have you ever stated that vaccinating Hispanic children is a "Waste of Taxpayer Money"?

I hope to get a response, but based on how the Gilchrist campaign has been ducking debates lately, I'm not holding my breath...

Shake-up on Team Gilchrist

If ever a campaign begged for the candidate to pack up and go home, it would be Jim Gilchrist’s. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m with those who initially was open-minded about Gilchrist. I’m no fan of Campbell’s, and was desperately hoping that this Minuteman Founder would be sane enough to carry the conservative banner.

Oh how I was, and am, disappointed.

Latest word out of the Gilchrist camp is that campaign manager Howie Morgan and vaguely-defined deputy Jeff Lehman have left the campaign. Rumor has it that newfound OC’er (or is it OC’ite?) Michael Jameson, who was/is helping out Bill Hunt’s fledgling campaign is taking over the reins over at Casa de Gilchrist.

As a fellow Hack, I’ve got to feel bad for Howie, Jeff, and now Michael. With all the promise of someone taking the right-flank away from Johnny Boy, it really is a shame that Gilchrist is such a nut. I mean, without the bankruptcies, the off-hand Camejo comments, and the public contempt for the “haves” and taxpayers in general, he might’ve been able to pull off a McClintock-type reputation for being a respected, thoughtful, statesman-like conservative.

Instead, he’s just a kook.

Too bad.

Another Statewide Candidate?

From today's WSJ Political Journal

The Terminated

She may have been pushed out as Hewlett Packard's CEO earlier this year, but Carly Fiorina is now being touted by some Republicans as a possible candidate for lieutenant governor of California. Some aides to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger are seeking to soften his image in the wake of the stinging defeats of his ballot initiatives at the polls last week. Backed by Maria Shriver, the governor's wife, they see Ms. Fiorina as an instant ticket to changing the Republican Party's image in the state and providing the governor with an attractive, moderate running mate as he enters the 2006 election cycle.

The 50-year-old Ms. Fiorina is certainly no political shrinking violet. Earlier this year, she urged the Bush White House to eschew any restrictions on trade, warning they would backfire and damage American competitiveness. "There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore," she told a Congressional hearing. "We have to compete for jobs."

There's only one problem with plugging Ms. Fiorina, a political novice, into the lieutenant governor's race. The leading candidate in the GOP primary is State Senator Tom McClintock, a darling of California conservatives, who won rave reviews for his principled race for governor in the 2003 recall election. Trying to muscle Mr. McClintock aside would alienate the conservative voters and volunteers that Mr. Schwarzenegger needs for his own re-election effort. Voter apathy was a primary reason for the drubbing that Mr. Schwarzenegger's reform agenda just suffered at the polls. It might sound like a step down, but perhaps the governor's staff should consider running Ms. Fiorina for another down-ballot race, such as state comptroller or treasurer. Either would provide her with a highly visible platform to showcase her executive and financial skills.

-- John Fund

Do it Again

I was against having a Special election but ...

Arnold should put up the same initiatives again. The purpose is not to win but to deplete the resources of your enemy. You might lose the battle but win the war.

Big business is not hurting financially due to the Special, whereas, CTA is.

After the same initiatives quailifies and fails, do it again and again and again and again. It takes 1 to 2 million to qualify one initiative. Arnold could easily raise the money needed.

Pick The Winner Contest

So, this is the week.

On Tuesday, California’s political climate will be made far more clear.

But today, the day before Election Day voting begins, I’d like to pass on the California Target Book’s “Pick the Winner” contest.

So, while I’m sure this will give Alan Hoffenblum heartburn, let’s play a game of “What happens on Tuesday?”

If You Read Nothing Else Today...

... Make sure you read pollster/strategist/campaign super-genius Arnie Steinberg's analysis of the Special Election. It is quite sobering, and quite telling.