Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Decision-Making Time?

It is getting close to decision-making time for the Governor's political operation. Should they continue to push all four of the Governor's "reform" initiatives (74,75,76,77), or should they abandon one or more to concentrate on those with the best chance of passing?

I suspect the final decision will be made late next week. Right now, it appears that 75 (Paycheck) and 74 (Teacher Tenure) may have the best chance to pass, followed by 77(Redistricting) and finally 76(Budget).

Prop. 76 has been hampered from day one by poor drafting, a lack of enthusiasm from strong fiscal conservatives who wanted a tougher measure and a negative ballot title & summary. While this measure is a personal favorite of the Governor, don't be surprised if it is sacrificed. It would not be a huge loss.

Redistricting would be harder to drop, but it, too, could fall by the wayside in the closing days if Mike Murphy & Company see it going down anyway. National Republicans and the White House do not support 77 and would be very happy to see it go down to defeat.

Prop. 74 is not much of a reform, but anything the CTA is against deserves a vote.

That leaves Prop. 75 as the one real, substantive reform that could pass on November 8th. If the Governor comes away from this election with a YES vote on Prop. 75, the other measures will soon be forgotten. Prop. 75 is the real thing.

15 Comments:

At 10/12/2005 1:15 PM, Blogger Senator McCarthy said...

Will the Schwarzenegger seek
re-election if he only get Prop. 74 and 75?

What if in a senario where 74 and 75 passes but 73 goes down in flames because Arnold didn't do enough?

Will he lose his right flank and therefore, not seek re-election?

 
At 10/12/2005 1:23 PM, Blogger The Teflon Pawn said...

I don't think that you can really drop any of the initiatives. I think the Governor's team is going to run the initiatives as a package just as ABC is fighting all the initiatives as a whole. I think even if you abandon one or more of the initiatives, and concentrate on the others, the difference will not be that much. The better thing to do would be to wait 10 days before the election and saturate the media with ads for all 4 props. I think that will end up turning the tide for the Governor since the unions seem to have blown a lot of the dough already when not a lot of people were paying attention.

 
At 10/12/2005 7:26 PM, Anonymous Paul Philly said...

Come on Joe,

Just because Dora Kingsley thinks you (and eveyrone else who has questioned Pierre) is a front for Arnold doesn't mean you have question Arnold just to prove a point.

Come on, at a time like this everyone needs to be supporting the Governor. He needs us and we should be good Republicans and never question those in leadership.

If Prop 73 fails it wasn't because Arnold didn't do enough, it is because we didn't do enough for Arnold.

 
At 10/12/2005 10:29 PM, Blogger NickM said...

Based on anecdotal evidence I've seen (i.e., people I've talked to), Prop. 73 will do significantly better than any other proposition on the ballot. The amount of money being spent on Props. 74 through 79 will drown out any attempt to change voters' minds on 73. I predict its passage by at least a 5-3, and quite possibly 2-1, margin.

Nick

 
At 10/12/2005 10:32 PM, Blogger kettle black said...

RE: paul philly

"...never question those in leadership..."


You're not suggesting that we blindly follow our leaders, are you?

I hope that was some kind of sarcasm that I failed to get.

 
At 10/14/2005 6:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For Prop 75 to be intellectually valid the federal government would need to get everyone's signature each year in order to have authority to spend money with their permission. Not a bad idea, but not one that will ever see the light of day. If union members don't like what their leaders are doing with their money then they have the right to replace them.

To be fair and equitable Prop 75 should require the same thing of corporations before spending their dividend money on campaign contributions rather then giving it to the shreholders who deserve it.

Anything else is intellectually dishonest.

 
At 10/14/2005 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear anonymous:

Wow, what a bizzare and wrong concept. The federal gov't has the power of the gun to take our money, but they are banned from using it for political messages.

Unions are not the government, and they ONLY use this money for politics.

 
At 10/14/2005 11:02 AM, Blogger Reagan Enthusiast said...

I do not agree that it is an all or nothing proposition for the Governor - I think it depends on what passes and how the administration can spin it to their advantage in the aftermath of the election. However, I do think the far right will have an elephant's memory about Schwarzenegger's lack of concern on Prop 73. If the Governor can pull off 75 and 76, I think he'll be in a good position come re-election time.

I am with KB on the 'never question our leaders' argument. That might be true in the military when you're ordered to storm a beachhead, but leadership unchecked by the followers leads to what we are seeing in DC right now...a deviation from the principals of the mission.

 
At 10/14/2005 1:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

77 is going to pass, check out their new ad, its hysterical.
http://www.voteyesonprop77.com

 
At 10/14/2005 3:02 PM, Anonymous Knightowl77 said...

If corporations can contribute and try and influence elections then why single out only public employees?

As a public employee I can opt out of my union if I disagree with what it is doing. All public employees can do this. To single ONLY them out isn't right.

This Republican is voting no. How about a FAIR proposition that limits all contributions that don't come directly from an individual, then you might have something that was actually fair and supported by the First Ammendment!

 
At 10/14/2005 3:10 PM, Anonymous Mark said...

Police Officers are 85% Republican, firefighters are about 50% republican.

The governator has pissed off both of those groups with Prop 75 and his attack on their pensions.

This is a blue state...you need to get all of your party to vote...and he just alienated a chunk of it.

 
At 10/15/2005 7:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Police Officers are 85% Republican, firefighters are about 50% republican.

The governator has pissed off both of those groups with Prop 75 and his attack on their pensions.


Ummm, this is the reason why these guys are going to vote with us this time. A Republican union member doesn't particularly like seeing his/her dues going to support Gray Davis and other Democrats.

 
At 10/16/2005 10:46 PM, Blogger Roseville Conservative said...

Anonymous (coward) as I choose to be open about who I am in the Blogosphere...

75 will pass, because Union Members deserve to determine where thier money is being spent.

73 is gonna pass. Period. Even California isn't that stupid.

74 is the only one in trouble, 74 is getting hammered by a $100 Million deception campaign from the teacher's Union.

75,76,77,78 will pass bacause Conservative voters will realize that change is good.

Thankfully, 79 and 80 are dead. I hope 80 is Dead... we will see what the Dams and the unions do on that....

 
At 10/17/2005 1:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did Anyone attend the political blog convention that happend over the weekend in orange county?

 
At 10/21/2005 8:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

prosper is hot. look at www.pierreprosper.com

 

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