Friday, August 05, 2005

Minuteman for Congress

BREAKING NEWS in the Special Election front – Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist has announced that he will in fact seek to succeed Chris Cox in Congress. The blogs have been all over the story already, as it has been reported here, here, and here.

As shocking as it may be, Gilchrist is not hiring me, Pete St. John, to manage his race. However, I would like to add an inside scoop, that national conservative hero Alan Keyes confidant Mary Parker-Lewis will be consulting for Mr. Gilchrist. This is significant, as it shows Mr. Gilchrist is serious and is not planning on running the race himself, or having it run by family friends, as often times long-shot candidates do. He’ll clearly have a nationwide donor base, and likely will be very active in visiting different parts of the country to raise funds.

Conventional wisdom would have it that this would be to Ms. Brewer’s benefit, as conservative support would seem to draw from Senator Campbell. But after reviewing the polling memos produced by each campaign (seen here and here), I believe that not only is the conventional wisdom mistaken, but that Mr. Gilchrist in fact is well positioned to be a major factor in this race.

Ms. Brewer’s support seems to come from women and liberal Republicans, while Campbell’s comes from more conservative voters. However, as Steve Kinney’s memo alludes to, 56% of voters surveyed are less inclined to vote for Campbell when they hear of his vote for providing in-state tuition benefits to illegal aliens. This staggering number indicates to me a sizable voting bloc of voters concerned with illegal immigration. And if Ms. Brewer’s hopes of victory were built around building a coalition of liberal Republicans, women, and anti-illegal immigration voters, a good chunk of that is immediately knocked off with Gilchrist’s candidacy.

However, once those voters for whom immigration is a determinant issue are aware of Campbell’s softness on the issue, they clearly aren’t the type of voters who would be inclined to support Ms. Brewer. These are solidly Gilchrist voters.

Now, the thing I’ll be watching with respect to this race will be how Gilchrist positions himself. Will he carefully stay true to his issues, while maintaining a sense of sanity (ala, Tom McClintock in the Recall), or will he go a little crazy and be seen as a right-wing cook (ala, Parker-Lewis’ boss, Alan Keyes in his last Senate bid)?

In my opinion, best case scenario for Gilchrist is a narrow victory, with say 35% of the vote. Worst case, he becomes unglued, and campaigns on the issue of immigration with reckless abandon for perception of himself. Most likely scenario - he proceeds respectfully, while remaining unflinching to his convictions, making him far and away the most visible and sought after endorser in the state for clout on immigration issues.

That remains to be seen, but for right now – the race just got a whole lot more interesting!

5 Comments:

At 8/05/2005 7:09 PM, Blogger Roseville Conservative said...

Please send me a link to your Blog... and thanks for the link to mine.

 
At 8/06/2005 12:53 AM, Blogger Inspector Clouseau said...

Pete - Hate to break the news but Johnson Clark has nothing to do with Hack n' Flak.

 
At 8/06/2005 1:31 AM, Blogger Netr said...

You learn something every day:-)

Cheesecake Recipe

 
At 8/06/2005 3:22 AM, Blogger Pete St. John said...

sure guido, sure...

 
At 8/08/2005 9:10 AM, Blogger William C. Ferrell said...

Hack n' Flak is run by Father Guido Sarducci AKA Tim Rosales who works for non other than Johnson Clark.

As for Gilcrest running for Congress, who thinks he really has a chance? He is a single ‎issue candidate who is hiring a consultant who is best known for running an unsuccessful ‎single issue Presidential campaign. He needs to champion other issues also if he is going ‎to win that seat.‎

 

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