Thursday, August 25, 2005

48th Congressional Race

I am disappointed at the quality of the candidates for the 48th district. Congressional seat nowadays is kind of like a 10 to 20 year appointment and I was looking forward to better person to emerge for the seat.

The “movement” needs at least one bomb thrower from Orange County like Dannemeyer or Dornan. I have a bad feeling we will be stuck with a country club Republican (in the old days, we called them “Rockefeller Republican”). At least movement conservatives would have had a seat at the table with Dick Ackerman without having to be rich.

It looks like the top three candidates are John Campbell, Marilyn C. Brewer, and Jim Gilchrist.

Jim Gilchrist, I believe, is the conservative in the race. If I was living in the district, would I vote for him first time around? Maybe.

Gilchrist major draw back is his campaign team and he is not a polished candidate. I have heard reports of him saying dumb things like, “I support the unions” in context of Prop. 75.

Taken out of context, he could be labeled a union goon, but what he meant was he supports the Proposition 75 because it protects union membership from their dues being used without their permission for political purposes, hence, he “supports the union membership” by giving them added protection. His much publicized “tax the rich” reference was also taken out of context. But at this point, unless Jim raises money and hires a better team, he is going no where.

It is a big shame since Gilchrist is one of the most sought after endorsements to Rep candidates across the country. For the sake of his movement, he better finish third place or higher or he jeopardizes the movement he started by being marginalized.

Only difference between Marilyn Brewer vs. John Campbell is Marilyn is honest about the abortion issue. John Campbell might give a good lip service on abortion but can anyone honestly say he is ideologically grounded on the issue or willing to risk himself politically for it? If the answer is yes, why are New Majority or the Generation Next crowd supporting him? Hmm???

I believe, like Spitzer, if he lived in a different area dominated by Dems, he would be a “conservative” pro-choice Democrat that votes the right way on all business issues.

Brewer or Campbell will tow the Republican line on all the economic issues in congress (I am not saying this is good thing). Brewer's record in the Assembly makes my point. It will make me sick if Campbell turns this race into “I am a conservative and Brewer is a moderate.”

They both are moderates.


At 8/25/2005 7:11 AM, Blogger California Observer said...

With the exception of the fact that Campbell will say he's a "real conservative" and "brewer is a liberal" (not moderate), that is exactly what the Campbell campaign will do. Do they know how o run any other kind of campaign?

My only other comment is that I fail to see how Gilchrist's "tax the rich"/"bring the estate tax back" comment could be taken out of context. Gilchrist is no conservative, he's a populist, with all the bad that that brings.

At 8/25/2005 11:15 AM, Blogger NickM said...

Dick Ackerman, movement conservative?????

No. I worked on Chris Norby for Assembly 1995. It was very clear that Chris was the movement conservative, and that Dick was the insiders' candidate.

Dick has turned out to be a very good vote in the state legislature, but he's not a movement conservative.


At 8/25/2005 11:28 AM, Blogger Senator McCarthy said...


Never said Ackerman was a "movement conservative."

Let me clarify . . . movement conservative types would not be ignored by Ackerman.

Unlike Campbell, Ackerman always has been good about returning calls or discussing legislation with a particular person.

At 8/25/2005 11:40 AM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said...

you guys are going to be pleasantly surprised by Jim's campaign. I predicted this morning that the race will go to the general election with Jim pulling out a victory a la Jesse Ventura in 1998 in Minnesota. The two major parties will get around 30% each and Jim will win with a vote total in the 35-39% range. That's my opinion of this race, but I live in the district also so I have a pretty good fell of this race.

At 8/25/2005 2:50 PM, Blogger William C. Ferrell said...

I don’t think the people of Orange County are dumb enough to elect Jim to office. Single ‎issue candidate and politics are bad news. ‎

At 8/25/2005 3:08 PM, Anonymous Joe Sixpack said...

He is about 100 times better than the trust fund baby.

At 8/25/2005 7:18 PM, Blogger Roseville Conservative said...

I am only going to say this...

Things that make you go hmmm...

I have my hands full with my Congressman, John Doolittle.

At 8/25/2005 10:47 PM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said...

Sorry William, but there are dozens of other issues that are directly related to the illegal immigration issue i.e. rising health care care costs, hospitals closing, floundering schools, budget deficits for all the services the illegals use, etc. But keep right on telling yourself that this only one issue. By the way, you guys have an excellant blog here. I'm covering the 48th CD race like a glove over at my blog.

At 8/26/2005 8:06 PM, Anonymous dick morris said...

Dick Ackerman is a bowel movement conservative

At 8/29/2005 1:09 AM, Anonymous Jim Jeffords said...

Brewer, Campbell, Scolinos, Ford, Poizner

Is anybody conservative around here?

At 8/29/2005 11:27 AM, Blogger AV Watch said...

Aliso Viejo is in the 48th. I cover AV politics and issues -- Not only is Gilchrist the Rep's worst nightmare in terms of general OC GOP Rep entitlement mentality, his team work at the national level, on high profile campaigns. That crew is one slick operation, and are of the caliber that campign schools like 'The Leadership Institute' use to teach seminars. So anyone who thinks the campaign is being run by hacks has no clue who these guys are, hasn't been to the Headquarters, and simply isn't informed. As for Gilchrist's conservatism -- no question there. That he has made a gaff or two regarding comments requiring further explanation will render him more appealing. Campbell is one tightly wound, cookie cut out career politician, who bought the 70th, bought his Senate seat, and is now making a very erroneous assumption that he's a shoo-in for the 48th. This is THE race to watch.

At 8/29/2005 6:49 PM, Blogger Senator McCarthy said...

If Gilchrist finishes lower than third place, the campaign team sucks.

If higher than third . . . I will eat more own words, the campaign team is a genius and I don't know what I am talking about.

To be fair, even if the campaign team is "World-class" . . . without money . . . they can't do much.

At 9/01/2005 11:02 PM, Anonymous Word from the inside said...

I talked to one of Gilchrists consultants. He says the operation is fXXXed up and in trouble. in addition, Gilchrist is afraid to pick up the phone and ask for money.


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