Monday, August 21, 2006

Abel Maldonado was right

Abel Maldonado was quoted in the Los Angeles Times as saying

"Our governor cares about one thing only, and that's Arnold Schwarzenegger,"

Sunday's SacBee details the Governor betraying the Victory '06 "team". Let's hear it for unity.

But with a full bank of cameras and reporters on hand Saturday, none of the
down-ticket candidates stood with the governor at Saturday's luncheon, and
banners promoting the other candidates had been removed from the vast convention room before the governor's speech.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

CRP update

The effort to force the GOP to endorse all of the Governors spending spree continues.

The CRP Chair is making appointments to the executive committee to insure passage of the bonds that normally the GOP would oppose.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Sundheim undermines CRP Convention to help Arnold

Why hasn't the CRP been promoting the upcoming August Convention like they have past meetings?

Simple Duf and company don't want a quroum. There is even an effort to collect proxies and NOT turn them over to the party in order to prevent a quorom.

Rather then the delegates voting on the bond , Duf and the Governor's political people have decided to use the Duf hand picked Executive CRP Committee to get what they want.

Team to Pass Bonds Announced

Quite an impressive team was announced to pass the "1's" - ie, the bonds.

Take a look, from Gale Kaufman helping out with framing education issues, to Bush's pollster - wow. I guess they did see the Field Poll showing them in trouble...

This from today's Capitol Morning Report

Polka Consulting reports it has been retained to lead the “bipartisan campaign team” assembled to run the united Rebuild CA campaign, Yes on Props. 1A (close 42 loophole), 1B (transportation bond), 1C (housing bond), 1D (education bond) and 1E (levees bond). According to Polka Consulting: Sandi Polka will “set overall and day-today strategy;” Larry McCarthy, president of McCarthy Marcus Hennings Ltd., will produce the campaign’s paid media; John Whitehurst and Mark Mosher, of Barnes Mosher Whitehurst Lauter and Partners, will focus on statewide Democratic and organizational outreach; Tom Ross, managing partner of Meridian Pacific, will oversee outreach to Republican and business organizations statewide; public opinion polling and research will be conducted jointly by Moore Methods and Jan van Lohuizen, president of Voter Consumer Research Inc.; Deborah Howard of D. Howard and Assocs. will assist in outreach, press and coordinate the campaign’s speaker’s bureau; and Paul Hefner of Polka Consulting will oversee campaign press and serve as spokesperson. Also, the campaign says it will consult with specialists on specific elements of the infrastructure plan, including: Gale Kaufman of Kaufman Campaign Consultants (schools), Steve Glazer of Glazer & Assocs. (housing), and Mark Watts and D.J. Smith of Smith Watts & Company (transportation/infrastructure). Contact: Paul Hefner 916 443 5900.

Friday, August 04, 2006


The biggest number that strikes me, after reflecting for a few days, about the Field Poll was the Angelides support among Democrats stat: 63%.

Field found just 63% of Democrats are voting for Phil.

If that sticks, Arnold wins.

But if, and when, that starts going up, obviously watch for Phil's overall numbers to start closing in on the Governor.

Is Angelides Hitting His Stride?

During the Primary, having a clear message wasn’t Phil Angelides’ problem. It could practically have fit on a bumper sticker. “I’m the real liberal. Steve Westly is just Arnold’s Mini Me,” basically was the daily mantra from his campaign.

But since June, he’s essentially been without one. Without a message to define his campaign. From “he’s an actor,” to “he’s George Bush,” Phil has yet to catch fire.

But today it seems he’s hitting on something that many top Republican strategists have told me privately is their fear that one day Phil would find as a message: “Arnold is a flip-flopper.”

It has been touched on by many people in many ways, but really Arnold has been on every side of every issue.

Education? Take away funding. Give it back. And more.

Prop 187? Is his message any more clear than Kerry’s “I voted for it before I voted against it” ???

How about the Minutemen? Prescription drugs? National Guard troop deployment?

How about just on issues that will appear on this November’s ballot? Last year, Arnold endorsed the Parental Notification initiative. This year, they even took out some of the poison pill portions, and he’s nowhere to be seen on it.

Paddling to the left, paddling to the right is a centrist political strategy, to be sure. But when you do the paddling on the same issue, sticking your oar in different sides of the water from day-to-day, it isn’t strategic, it’s erratic.

Angelides may be on to something if he sticks with this theme and builds it into an over-arching strategy.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Schwarzenegger Dropping McClintock?

Wiser people than myself predicted long ago that once Schwarzenegger took the lead in the polls he would drop McClintock like a Frenchman drops his rifle at the first sign of a Panzer. And so now it seems to have come to pass.

Last week Schwarzenegger was in McClintock's district for a fundraiser at the home of uber-donor Ed Atsinger. 30 people at $30,000 a head I'm told. Stragely, McClintock wasn't even told about the event, nevermind invited. If the Governor was really running on a "ticket" as he claimed in the days of his abysmal poll numbers, he would have invited McClintock along to meet some of those high-dollar people.

Friday, July 28, 2006

Potential GOP Revolt Against Arnold's Bond Measures?

Prop 1B – $19.9 billion traffic bond

All voters – 54 Yes – 27 No – 19 Undecided
Among GOP - 39 Yes – 38 NO – 20 Undecided

Prop 1C - $2.8 billion housing bond

All voters - 33 Yes- 42 No- 25 Undecided
Among GOP - 17 Yes-- 56 No-- 27 Undecided

Prop 1D - $10.4 billion school facilities

All voters – 48 Yes-- 37 No-- 15 Undecided
GOP – 31 Yes-- 50 No-- 19 Undecided

Prop 1E - $4.1 billion flood protection/emergency preparedness

All voters – 47 Yes-- 33 No-- 20 Undecided
GOP – 35 Yes-- 42 No-- 23 Undecided

Told Ya!

"'So what I've said to Phil, and he's good with that, is that after this is over, of course I'm going to be with the Democrat,' Villaraigosa said Thursday."

Odd. Sounds a lot like what this blog said would happen.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006


Like most of you, I started my day by downloading the pdf of the Field Poll and giving it a look over breakfast.

My basic question is: do any of its findings merit repeating?

How does a turnout model where the Republican gets 33% in LA County and 34% in the Bay Area, adding up to an 8-point Republican lead make any sense?

My answer: it doesn’t.

I’d have to guess that this is heavily over-sampled in the remaining parts of Southern California (ie, OC, Inland Empire) and the Central Valley.

Sure, ask 992 registered voters at the Harvest Crusade who they’re supporting, and ya, I’d imagine Arnold does pretty well. Ask 992 registered voters at a Save the Whales rally, and well, probably not so well.

A wise man once told me that a poll is only as good as its sample.

This Field Poll doesn’t seem to be very good.

Remember that when the next one trickles out and shows guys like McClintock and Strickland (still) up. Granted, I think they might actually be, but this won’t be valid validation. At least not in my book.